The pandemic, financial crises, cyber attacks, Islamist terrorism, information manipulation, foreign investment in strategic sectors, the return of military powers: since the 2000s, the threats facing France and Europe have increased and diversified.
On top of this, there are also powers that will seek to take advantage of an unstable context in order to impose their will by various means, military or non-military, direct or indirect. Such was the case of Turkey: in the context of a weakened US and Europe, on 10 August 2020, a seismic research vessel and a military flotilla were sent into the seas claimed by Athens in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The multilateral framework, debilitated by the Sino-American rivalry, is struggling to stabilize and coordinate a global response to crises. Covid-19 has proven just that. The same is true for NATO, which is a powerless witness to growing conflicts between several of its members. And though Joe Biden’s election as President of the US is indeed a source of hope that Europeans may regain a peaceful transatlantic relationship, it is clear that relations with China will remain a priority. The diagnosis of all this is that France and the European Union will not be able to rely exclusively on their American ally, or the multilateral order, for their security.