[Decoding France] - The Grand Departure

Welcome back to Decoding France, Institut Montaigne’s monthly guide to the often-bewildering world of French politics!

This month’s theme is "The Grand Departure." We use the term "departure" in the singular, but we have two quite distinct meanings in mind.

First, we are, of course, referring to the departure from the political stage of Emmanuel Macron, who entered the final year of the second term of his presidency a few weeks ago, marking the beginning of the end of his decade in power.

Second, we are thinking of the grand departure for those  hoping to succeed Macron. They have already started to jostle for position now that the race for the Élysée Palace is no longer looming on the horizon. The starting line is crowded—perhaps more so than at any point in recent memory. Across the political spectrum, contenders are positioning themselves, testing their messages, holding rallies, publishing books, and preparing for what promises to be an unusually long campaign.

The 2027 election cycle may be stretched at both ends. It is starting earlier than any recent presidential contest-yet it may also end later. In today’s fragmented political landscape, victory in the presidential election may settle only part of the question. The legislative elections that follow could prove just as consequential, determining whether the next president will actually have the means to govern.

Let’s begin.

The End of the Macron Era

The final year of a presidency always has a peculiar atmosphere. Politicians start to look beyond the incumbent, government initiatives lose momentum, and attention gradually shifts toward succession.

But this final year is unlike any other. Emmanuel Macron is bringing a decade in power to a close. He has governed without an absolute majority since 2022 and without a majority at all since 2024. He is also the first president of the Fifth Republic to be constitutionally barred from seeking another term.

Will Macron spend the coming months watching his would-be successors from the sidelines? Almost certainly not. Those who know him insist that he intends to govern until the very last day of his term and defend what remains of his political legacy with the same energy that brought him to power nearly a decade ago.

This determination is especially visible on the international stage. France will host the G7 summit in Évian from June 15 to 17, offering a striking point of comparison with the summit France hosted in Biarritz in 2019. Donald Trump was present at the Biarritz summit too, but the similarities largely end there. Since then, the world has been transformed by the war in Ukraine, mounting tensions in the Middle East, and growing geopolitical rivalries among major powers. Macron himself is no longer a young reformist president at the height of his first term but an outgoing head of state seeking to shape Europe’s response to an increasingly unstable world. Strategic autonomy, European defense policy, and the need for greater continental resilience are likely to remain central themes of his final year in office.

The National Rally: Momentum or Inevitability?

The National Rally (RN) may be the one political force that is in the lead peloton as we enter the summer.

The latest Verian poll does not measure voting intentions but something perhaps even more revealing at this stage of the cycle: political desirability, or who the French are willing to imagine exercising power in the future.

By that measure, Jordan Bardella continues his ascent. His popularity rating has risen by 6 points to a record 47 percent, meaning that nearly one French voter in two would like to see him play an important role in the years ahead. Marine Le Pen is also progressing, reaching 40 percent, just 1 point below her all-time high. The party itself remains remarkably resilient: 41 percent of respondents now express a favorable opinion of the RN, 3 points higher than in March and well ahead of its competitors.

The contrast with the rest of the political field is striking. Édouard Philippe has formally entered the presidential race but has lost ground in recent months, while Gabriel Attal’s numbers remain largely unchanged.

For now, the RN appears stronger than ever. Yet behind these encouraging figures lie two unresolved questions that may ultimately shape the party’s prospects in 2027: Who will carry its colors? What exactly will they stand for?

The first question will begin to be answered on July 7, the date of the decision of the Court of Appeals on the Marine Le Pen case. The public prosecutor’s office has requested a five-year ban on her standing for election, four years’ imprisonment-three of which would be suspended, with the possibility of serving the unsuspended portion under electronic monitoring-as well as a fine of 100,000 euros. It is unlikely that the Court of Appeals will acquit her.

From July onward, attention will gradually shift from the identity of the candidate to the nature of the project. If Jordan Bardella does become the party’s nominee-as now appears increasingly likely-the central question will no longer be whether Marine Le Pen can run, but what role she will play within the movement she has spent more than a decade reshaping.

To conclude regarding the RN, it is important to resist the temptation of regarding its accession to power in 2027 as inevitable. This is, however, a real possibility-and dismissing it would be a mistake. French presidential campaigns have a long history of overturning assumptions and humiliating forecasters.

My own intuition is that the international context may prove more challenging for Jordan Bardella than many observers currently assume. The wars in Ukraine and Iran, growing uncertainty in transatlantic relations, and renewed debates over European security policy place foreign policy at the center of political life. These are not traditionally the RN’s strongest issues, and under sustained scrutiny, Bardella’s youth and limited international experience could become liabilities.

Presidential campaigns are marathons rather than sprints. They are unforgiving, often defined as much by mistakes as by successes. Eleven months remains an eternity in politics.

Everyone Wants to Be the Alternative

An assumption that is increasingly shared across the political spectrum is that the RN will reach the second round of the presidential election. Therefore, the strategic question for almost every other political actor is no longer whether the RN will be present but who will face it.

This new reality is reshaping the behavior of parties across the board.

On the left, the challenge remains one of fragmentation. Jean-Luc Mélenchon continues to dominate the political space to the left of the Socialist Party and remains the only candidate with a clearly defined political machine behind him. Polling between 12 and 15 percent, he benefits from a level of organizational discipline that his competitors often lack.

That advantage was on full display this weekend at a large rally in Saint-Denis, a territory that has become emblematic of the social and demographic changes Mélenchon seeks to place at the heart of French politics. Speaking before a crowd his movement claimed numbered 26,000 people, the veteran tribune doubled down on his vision of a "New France," shaped by successive waves of immigration and cultural diversity. He also delivered a message to the rest of the left: "the primary is over" .

The meeting also offered an early glimpse of his presidential platform. Mélenchon reiterated several of his signature proposals, including lowering the retirement age to 60, raising the minimum wage to €1,700 per month, dismantling large media conglomerates, and supporting independence for New Caledonia. Whether these proposals broaden his appeal beyond his core electorate remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that while much of the non-Mélenchonist left is still debating procedures and alliances, Mélenchon is already campaigning.

The rest of the left remains trapped in an endless debate over unity. Nearly a dozen potential candidates are currently maneuvering for position, while Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure has floated the idea of organizing not one but two separate primaries. Faure’s proposal illustrates the broader problem: Discussions about procedures are increasingly overshadowing political substance. The result is a growing impression of confusion at a moment when clarity is desperately needed.

The center faces a different dilemma. Rather than deciding how to unite, it must decide who should lead. The rivalry between Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe has now become the defining feature of the post-Macron camp.

Both men are products of the Macron years, yet neither wishes to campaign as Macron’s direct heir. Each is trying to strike a delicate balance, benefiting from experience and credibility gained in government while distancing himself from the weaknesses and fatigue associated with a decade of Macronism. Attal presents himself as the candidate of generational renewal, while Philippe seeks to embody experience, stability, and presidential stature in an increasingly turbulent world.

The traditional right finds itself in an equally uncomfortable position. Although Bruno Retailleau has emerged as its official candidate, key figures within his own political family are maintaining their distance. Public reservations expressed by Xavier Bertrand, Laurent Wauquiez, and Jean-François Copé reveal a party that has yet to fully settle the question of its leadership or its strategy.