HomeAuthorsFrançois Godement François Godement Special Advisor and Resident Senior Fellow - U.S. and Asia Resident FellowFollow AsiaFrançois Godement is Institut Montaigne’s Special Advisor and Resident Senior Fellow – Asia and America. He was also a Nonresident Senior Fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. and, until the summer of 2024, an external consultant for the Policy Planning Staff of the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs. He was the Director of ECFR’s Asia & China Program and a Senior Policy Fellow before leaving in December 2018.A long-time professor at France’s National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilisations (INALCO) and Sciences Po, he created Centre Asie at the Paris-based Institut français des relations internationales (1985-2005) and Asia Centre in 2005. In 1995 he co-founded the European committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP), which he co-chaired until 2008. He is a graduate of the École normale supérieure de la rue d’Ulm (Paris), where he majored in history, and was a postgraduate student at Harvard University.His last published books are Les mots de Xi Jinping, Dalloz, 2021 and La Chine à nos portes - une stratégie pour l'Europe (with Abigaël Vasselier), Odile Jacob, 2018. [Scenarios] - China 2035: The Chances of Success (January 2025)Europe Needs a Systemic Response to China's Car Offensive (April 2024)Making European Economic Security a Reality (March 2024)China’s Disappointing Economic Figures and the Crisis of Confidence (September 2023)Cross-border Data Flows: the Choices for Europe (April 2023, with Viviana Zhu)China’s Change of Economic Model: Not So Fast! (June 2022)Rebooting Europe’s China Strategy (May 2022, with Ian Bond, Hanns W. Maull and Volker Stanzel)Xi Jinping as an Ordoliberal: China's Margins for Growth in 2022 (February 2022)China’s Economic Rebound: Views from Beijing (June 2021)Wins and Losses in the EU-China Investment Agreement (CAI) (January 2021)France and Germany Together: Promoting a European China Policy (November 2020)Europe’s Pushback on China (June 2020)Fighting COVID-19: East Asian Responses to the Pandemic (April 2020, with Mathieu Duchâtel and Viviana Zhu)Digital Privacy, How Can We Win the Battle? (December 2019)Europe and 5G: the Huawei Case (May 2019, with Mathieu Duchâtel).PublicationsExplainersJanuary 2025[Scenarios] - China 2035: The Chances of SuccessXi Jinping’s era is marked by centralized power and surveillance, with China aiming for “socialist modernization” by 2035. While pursuing tech self-sufficiency and national security, challenges like demographic decline and economic strain persist. Taiwan's "reunification" and a zero-sum trade approach drive tensions. Four scenarios for China’s future emerge: dominance with minimal foreign pushback, fragmented resistance preserving balance, a unified global challenge, or a major conflict over Taiwan reshaping global power dynamics. Global unity will be crucial to influence China’s trajectory by 2035.Policy PaperMarch 2024Making European Economic Security a RealityEurope must act quickly to ensure its economic security in the face of current threats. The European Commission has proposed defensive measures, but debates persist about the best approach. How can Europe effectively coordinate its actions to guarantee its economic security, and what role does international cooperation play in this strategy?ExplainersSeptember 2023China’s Disappointing Economic Figures and the Crisis of ConfidenceJuly 2023China Trends #16 - China’s Diplomatic Coup in the Middle East: the Facts behind the HypeChina Trends #16 by Institut Montaigne.Policy PaperApril 2023Cross-border Data Flows: the Choices for EuropeCross-border data flows govern almost everything we do today. States are facing a dilemma between protection of their data and benefits from free-flow. Europe faces a challenge from the US, the dominating actor in the digital world, and a threat from China’s authoritarian model. Europe must make choices to strengthen its position in the digital field.March 2023China Trends #15 - China’s Diplomacy: A Triumph of Cost-Benefit AnalysisChina Trends #15 by Institut Montaigne.October 2022China Trends #14 - Figures of Speech in China’s Foreign PolicyChina Trends #14 by Institut Montaigne.Notejune 2022China’s Change Of Economic Model: Not So Fast!François Godement, Institut Montaigne’s Senior Advisor for Asia, assesses the characteristics and flaws of China’s stimulus plan, and of the overall Chinese economic model. NoteMay 2022Rebooting Europe’s China StrategyHow should Europe respond to the implications of its entanglement with China? Can Europe avoid a costly decoupling from China and maintain mutually beneficial ties while remaining true to itself, to its values and interests?March 2022China Trends #12 - Ukraine: China’s "Rock-Solid" Pro-Russia Narrative China Trends #12 by Institut Montaigne.NoteFebruary 2022Xi Jinping As An Ordoliberal: China's Margins For Growth In 2022Since the beginning of the pandemic, China has been one of the most conservative and restrictive regarding its economy. What is its economic outlook in 2022?December 2021China Trends #11 - China’s Selective Opening Up: the Case of Foreign Direct InvestmentChina Trends #11 by Institut MontaignePolicy PaperNovember 2021China Trends #10 - How AI Will Transform ChinaChina Trends #10 by Institut MontaigneNoteJuly 2021China Trends #9 - Questioning China’s Emission PledgesChina Trends #9 by Institut MontaigneNoteJune 2021China’s Economic Rebound: Views from BeijingAfter the Covid-19 crisis, China trumped economic expectations and experienced a rapid recovery. What can we expect for the country’s future?NoteJanuary 2021Wins and Losses in the EU-China Investment Agreement (CAI)The EU-China Investment Agreement (CAI) has been oversold and underpowered. What conclusions can be drawn?NoteNovember 2020Promoting a European China Policy – France and Germany TogetherFaced with China, define common priorities in the service of a confident and forward-looking Europe.NoteOctober 2020China Trends #7 - The Shrinking Margins for DebateChina Trends #7 by Institut MontaigneNoteJune 2020Europe’s Pushback on ChinaChina has risen to become strong and self reliant, while Europe wants to foster multilateralism and global integration. Does that make Europe vulnerable? How did we get here, and where do we go?NoteApril 2020Fighting Covid-19: East Asian Responses to the PandemicWhat are the lessons from East Asian countries on their management of the Covid-19 crisis?EtudeNovember 2019Digital Privacy: How Can We Win the Battle?Between privacy, efficiency and public interest, how do Europe, China and India reconcile priorities?NoteJune 2019Europe and 5G: the Huawei Case - part 2What choices for 5G infrastructure in Europe? The Huawei case has taken on a controversial dimension that reveals crucial strategic issues for Europe between China and the United States.03/21/2025Can Europe Do a "Reverse Deng" With China? François Godement 03/10/2025Why There Cannot Be a US–EU–China Triangle François Godement 02/21/2025 After Munich : the "New Normal" François Godement 01/15/2025 [Trump II] - Trump and Musk Challenge Europe to Rise or Submit François Godement 11/12/2024 [Trump II] - China in the Transatlantic Relationship with Donald Trump François Godement 10/29/2024 [Trump II] - Democracy and the International Order: Escaping the Doom Loop François Godement 10/03/2024 China Trends #21 - China’s Balancing Act with the "Axis of Upheaval" François Godement Pierre Pinhas Adam Cathcart Marcin Kaczmarski 07/19/2024 United States Presidential Election : The Import of J.D. Vance François Godement 05/07/2024France and China: Making the Best of an Unequal Relationship François Godement 04/10/2024China Trends #19 - The Hot Peace between China and India François Godement Mathieu Duchâtel Manoj Kewalramani Jabin T. Jacob Pierre Pinhas 04/10/2024 Europe Needs a Systemic Response to China's Car Offensive François Godement 01/16/2024 Overcoming the Trump Obsession François Godement 12/19/2023 China Trends #18 – Searching for Growth Engines Via Innovation François Godement Philippe Aguignier Pierre Pinhas Viviana Zhu 11/22/2023 Biden-Xi Meeting: the Fallout for Europe François Godement 09/04/2023 Europe’s Economic Security and China: Where to Draw the Line Mathieu Duchâtel François Godement 09/13/2023 How Can the US and Europe Cooperate More Effectively on the Taiwan Issue? Larry Diamond François Godement 06/07/2023 Deciphering the EU-US Trade & Technology Council François Godement 05/02/2023 Containment and engagement: drawing the line with China François Godement 04/21/2023 Macron and China: The Perils of Equivalence François Godement 01/06/2023 Xi Jinping - The Emperor's New Clothes François Godement 09/14/2022 China's Foreign Policy: It's Time for a Return to Low Profile François Godement 07/19/2022 How Should Europe Respond to India’s Self-Alignment? François Godement 05/09/2022 Human Life Before Economic Growth: The Case for China’s Lockdowns François Godement 04/19/2022 How Europe Should Respond to Global Reservations on Sanctions François Godement 03/14/2022 China’s Shifting Balance of Interests After the Ukraine Invasion François Godement 03/14/2022 Three Franco-German Priorities for Europe’s China Policy: Economic Security... François Godement Mikko Huotari 01/14/2022 Ukraine: China and Russia’s Calculated Mutual Support Michel Duclos François Godement 10/22/2021 China’s Painful, but Necessary Energy Transition François Godement 09/17/2021 Xi Jinping’s New Political Economy: Part 2 François Godement 09/16/2021 Xi Jinping’s New Political Economy: Part 1 François Godement 09/07/2021 China: The Ground Shakes, Is An Earthquake Coming? François Godement 08/18/2021 China’s Coming Afghan Policy: a Window on China’s New Strategy François Godement 07/26/2021 Killing Several Birds With One Stone: China’s New Digital Policies François Godement 06/24/2021 Europe’s Response to China’s Military Strategies and Challenges François Godement 05/27/2021 Contradictions and Compatibilities between China and Climate Eric Chaney François Godement 05/25/2021 China’s Climate Pledges and The Coal-Driven Economy Eric Chaney François Godement 04/13/2021 Values and the Role of Sanctions in the Europe-China-US Triangle François Godement 03/19/2021 From the Indo-Pacific to Alaska: The US-China Great Game François Godement 02/19/2021 The Commission’s Trade Policy Review - Between Idealism And Realism François Godement 12/02/2020 China’s Mercantilist Recovery After Covid-19 François Godement Viviana Zhu 09/02/2020 EU-China Relations: Smoke, Mirrors and Reality François Godement 08/03/2020 China Trends #6 - Overstretch? China’s Foreign Policy Gamble François Godement 07/08/2020 Hong Kong: the National Security Law’s Shock Wave François Godement 06/02/2020 China Trends #5 - EU-China: Towards a Chinese Win François Godement 05/25/2020 Two Chinas, One System - Dissimulation and Strategic Opportunities François Godement 04/24/2020 Digital Tracing or Repetitive Lockdown: French Citizens, You'll Have to Cho... François Godement 03/30/2020 Fighting the Coronavirus Pandemic, East Asian Responses - China: Lockdowns,... François Godement Viviana Zhu 03/23/2020 Fighting the Coronavirus Pandemic: China's Influence at the World Health Or... François Godement 03/05/2020 China and the UN System – the Case of the World Intellectual Property Organ... François Godement 02/18/2020 The China-US Trade "War": Decoupling Is a Marathon, Not a Sprint - Part 4 François Godement 02/17/2020 Xi Jinping and the Coronavirus François Godement 01/30/2020 Europeans Struggle to Mitigate 5G Risks Mathieu Duchâtel François Godement 01/23/2020 India, the Digital Battleground François Godement 12/17/2019 China Trends #4 - China’s Economic Policies: Delaying the Choices François Godement 12/19/2019 The China-US Trade "War": And The Winner Is… - Part 3 François Godement 12/13/2019 The China-US Trade "War": China on the Trump Roller-Coaster - Part 2 François Godement 11/27/2019 The China-US Trade "War": Questioning Economic Predictions - Part 1 François Godement 11/07/2019 A New Stranglehold on Companies? Chinese Rating Systems Eric Chaney François Godement 11/04/2019 Macron’s Uphill China Trip François Godement 10/08/2019 China Trends #3 - Dotting the I’s and Crossing the T’s: Sino-Russian Cooper... François Godement 10/01/2019 Xi Jinping, the Innovative Restorer François Godement 08/20/2019 Hong Kong’s Last Gasp François Godement 06/25/2019 America, 5G, and Industrial Policy François Godement 05/14/2019 A European Strategy in the China-Us Trade War François Godement 04/15/2019 EU-China: The New Semantics of the Summit François Godement 03/15/2019 China Trends #1 - China, the Reluctant WTO Reformer François Godement 04/02/2019 China and Europe: Divorce Italian Style? François Godement Marc Lazar 03/25/2019 Europe’s China Backlash François Godement 03/18/2019 Europe facing China: a Copernican revolution François Godement 02/12/2019 China Plans Visits to Europe in Times of Uncertainty François Godement 01/24/2019 Is the Chinese Economy Drifting, Tanking or Changing? François Godement 11/22/2018 Portrait of Xi Jinping - President of the People's Republic of China François Godement