It is up to Tehran to make this choice, but the latter will partially depend on the carrot and stick approach of non-regional great powers. Since the US under Donald Trump seems to only have sticks at its disposal, it is up to Europe, Russia and China to deal with the deficit of carrots - albeit without being complacent towards Iranian policies.
Three sets of positive incentives could be appealing to the Iranian leadership, and all would benefit from a higher degree of coordination between Europe and Russia. All also come at a certain political cost, given that none is immune to criticism and resistance from numerous opponents, including those sitting in the White House today. Moreover, even if implemented, none of these incentives fully guarantee that the Iranian leadership will make all the right decisions. However, they do significantly increase the chances of a positive outcome.
- First, Europe and Russia need to do whatever it takes to save the JCPOA despite the US withdrawal. Initially, the Iranian leadership primarily perceived the agreement as a catalyst for unlocking economic, technological and political cooperation with the United States. Since Iran has not achieved this goal, the domestic pressure on the JCPOA is intensifying. The decisions announced by President Rouhani on May 8, i.e. limiting Iran’s compliance to only some elements of the nuclear deal and threatening to go further into that direction in 60 days if some conditions are not met by then by the other signatories, clearly signal that the fate of the JCPOA is now at stake. Moreover, Iranians are beginning to question the country’s adherence to the NPT, and the hardliners in Tehran are positioning their military assets in the region so as to face (or to provoke) the possibility of a major showdown, at least with Israel. The alleged increased transfers of rockets to regional proxies is a sign of this worrisome trend.
Russia and the main European powers do not see completely eye to eye on these issues. Moscow is less adamant about the Iranian ballistic program, less prone to condemn so-called "destabilizing" activities in the region and is in any case not prepared to establish any causal effect between these matters and the implementation of the JCPOA. However, Russia and Europe do share some obvious common interests. Indeed, both want to avoid the non-proliferation crises that would ensue, were Tehran to decide to distance itself from the constraints of the JCPOA or the NPT, and both want to make sure that the risk of escalation in the region does not materialize.
In the wake of the decisions taken by Iran on May 8, there are now more reasons than ever for Russia and Europe to work together and to try to save the JCPOA. The Europeans have made a major effort by establishing a special vehicle – called INSTEX – to facilitate trade with Iran. However, the Iranians deem that this effort failed to meet their expectations, and their new stance on the JCPOA is openly designed to put pressure on Europe. Moscow is also tempted to blame the Europeans for not doing enough. These views are short-sighted. In fact, Russia and China could also do more, for instance by implementing their part of the civilian nuclear cooperation covered by the nuclear agreement.
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