The 2015 Paris Agreement sealed an unparalleled success in reaching global consensus, not only for climate action, but also for the broader sustainability goals laid out in the 2030 Agenda. As climate negotiators, world leaders, media and advocacy groups reunite at the COP26 in Glasgow, however, the 2015 euphoria has been replaced by an eerie feeling of mounting conflict. In particular, the urgency to deal with climate and sustainability is increasingly being pitted against global norms based on civil liberties, a legacy of the post-WWII era.
China’s commitments under the global climate negotiations are generally regarded as insufficient for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold. With 27% of global emissions, China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. Since 2000, it has been responsible for over 60% of the increase in global CO2 emissions. In 2019, China even surpassed the total emissions of all OECD countries combined. Within the scope of China’s Paris commitments, these emissions are projected to rise even further, from 13.4Gt CO2 in 2018 to a 2030 peak of 14.5Gt.
It may sound odd that despite a looming climate catastrophe, the country responsible for well over half of the increase in global CO2 emissions over the past two decades now, would maintain its course of action. However, the explanation can be found within the architecture of the global climate negotiations under the climate convention (UNFCCC), where China positions itself as a leading advocate for maintaining the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities". The principle affirms that while all countries are responsible for putting forward solutions to climate change, they must each do so in accordance with their individual level of capacities and capabilities. Claiming to still be a developing country with limited capabilities, China has managed to avoid taking on absolute targets. As a result, it has maintained the right to flexibility that is given to developing countries on a range of topics, including absolute emission levels, monitoring, reporting and verification of emissions.
A normative power play at the center of China’s greening
Instead of stepping up climate ambitions, President Xi Jinping has launched the concept of "a community of shared destiny for mankind". Underpinning this vision is China’s challenge to the Western human rights hegemony, where national sovereignty is absolute, where differences in political systems must not be challenged, and where states should seek "win-win cooperation". These are circumstances under which China may offer to take on more ambitious climate targets or engage in other mutually beneficial low-carbon cooperation, while expecting concessions on Chinese core values and interests in return.
Should we be prepared to compromise human rights, democracy, security, open trade and freedom of expression, with the hope that it will increase the climate ambitions of the CCP? And if we do, would that really work in favor of solving the climate crisis and achieving a more sustainable development? Is there any foundation at all for this concept of cooperation on a "shared destiny of mankind", if fundamental liberal norms cannot be maintained at the international level?
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