[Decoding France] - Beyond the Budget Crisis

The Most Widely Rejected Budget in History

The question continues to haunt French politics: Will Parliament manage to adopt a budget for 2026? If so, what budget will be passed and when? What once felt like a dramatic institutional moment has devolved into a bewildering spectacle-a tangle of amendments undone and redone, new taxes announced only to be withdrawn or rewritten, unnatural voting alliances blurring any sense of coherence, and a budgetary debate so convoluted that few French citizens can follow it. The discussions at the beginning of the week, considered as constructive especially with the socialist deputies, could perhaps bring the social security budget to adoption through article 49.3 by December 9 - let's remember that the National Assembly has the final say. But the matter seems much more difficult regarding the Government budget, where article 49-3 seems inevitable.

The prospect of a return to genuine parliamentarianism collapsed partly on the night of Friday, November 21, when MPs almost unanimously rejected the revenue section of the 2026 budget after 125 hours of debate. Never in the history of the Fifth Republic was a budget rejected so overwhelmingly: Only one MP voted in favor of the revenue section, 404 voted against, and 84 abstained. This vote represents a direct rebuke to the method championed by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu: the belief that consensus could somehow be reached in a fragmented Assembly with no majority and no coalition agreement.

Lecornu Attempts to Regain Control

Nevertheless, Lecornu is trying to regain control. On Monday, November 24-three days after the near-unanimous rejection of the revenue section-he attempted to chart a way out of the deadlock. Speaking for the first time since the failed first reading, the prime minister downplayed the crisis as "relatively normal." To regain traction, he plans to structure parliamentary debate around five "absolute priorities": the deficit, state reform, energy, agriculture, and internal and external security. A first discussion, followed by a non-binding vote, will take place on December 10, focusing on national defense strategy, where he hopes to build consensus. He also seized on a request from Socialist MPs for a debate on narcotrafficking-a major issue we discuss later in this installment of Decoding France-proposing it be held on December 12. Because the Assembly never examined the expenditure section, none of these priority themes has yet been debated. Whether this new sequencing can truly unlock the stalemate-or merely buy time-remains an open question.

The Social Security Budget: Yet Another Institutional Snag

Meanwhile, the 2026 social security financing bill was approved by the Senate on November 26. However, the joint committee of deputies and senators also failed to reach an agreement. The bill now returns to the Assembly for further debate. A key sticking point is that the Senate rejected the suspension of the pension reform despite the Assembly having voted in favor. This suspension will almost certainly be reintroduced by deputies during the second reading, setting the scene for yet another clash between the chambers.

A Brutal Calendar

There are two very concrete dates coming up that highlight the extremely narrow timeframe remaining for the government and lawmakers:

December 23 - the constitutional deadline: The constitution allows Parliament seventy days to examine the budget. This will take us to December 23, the absolute deadline for the budget to be formally adopted.

December 19 - the deadline for a "special law." The government has until December 19 to present a special bill in the Council of Ministers. This mechanism was already used last year to extend budget debates into early 2026, allowing for the temporary rollover of the 2025 budget and the continued collection of existing taxes. As such a rollover delays both new revenue measures and planned savings, its cost is significant-it is estimated that adopting such a law will cost the French economy €11 billion (including €3 billion in lost revenue and €8 billion in savings not carried out).

Scenarios: What Happens Now?

Let us now venture a few hypotheses-not firm predictions but informed possibilities.

No budget by December 31, but no ordinances either: It is highly unlikely that the budget will be adopted by December 31. However, the government will probably avoid resorting to ordinances on January 1, as doing so would set a politically dangerous precedent.

Adoption of a special law-a likely scenario: France will almost certainly rely again on a special law, as was the case last year, to extend the timeline and temporarily renew the 2025 budget. 

Final adoption around February, possibly using Article 49.3. Final adoption of the budget will probably occur around February. Crucially, there does not seem to be any plausible path to adoption without resorting to Article 49.3. The government will need to stage-manage this carefully, but Lecornu appears to have no alternative. It now looks like renouncing Article 49.3 was a strategic mistake. If an agreement with the Socialist Olivier Faure (or others) is reached, using Article 49.3 could be framed in a way that avoids a no-confidence vote or dissolution-which would be unthinkable so close to the municipal elections.

Why does the use of Article 49.3 seem inevitable? Last week’s rejection of the budget was unprecedented: 404 MPs opposed the revenue section, and 84 abstained, effectively sinking the entire project before the expenditure section was even examined. The Assembly rejected the budget last year, but not with such overwhelming force

Meanwhile, the National Rally Keeps Surging

For the first time, a poll now places Jordan Bardella ahead in every second-round configuration tested for the 2027 presidential election. According to Odoxa, he is set to beat Édouard Philippe 53 percent to 47 percent, a complete reversal from April, when the former prime minister was still leading. He would also defeat Raphaël Glucksmann (58 percent to 42 percent), Gabriel Attal (56 percent to 44 percent), and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (overwhelmingly so, at 74 percent to 26 percent).

Historically, polls taken this far ahead of presidential elections often miss the mark: in 1980, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was projected to win in 1981; in 1994, Édouard Balladur was favored over Jacques Chirac; in 2002, Lionel Jospin appeared certain to face Chirac; in 2012, Dominique Strauss-Kahn looked inevitable; and in 2016, François Fillon was seen as the likely victor.

None of today’s scenarios is predetermined. Marine Le Pen-still the party’s official candidate and awaiting a crucial appeal ruling in early 2026-was not even included in the Odoxa poll. The so-called front républicain [a broad coalition across the political spectrum to block the far right] remains fundamentally unpredictable: It emerges only when danger feels imminent, shaped by emotion, turnout swings, and last-minute vote transfers that no poll can capture months in advance.

The budget is not the only crisis facing the country. More immediate dangers are now imposing themselves on the national agenda-dangers not even a weakened transitional government can afford to ignore.

A New "Point of No Return"

Drug trafficking has become a genuine national scourge in France but has only been elevated to a top political priority in recent months. The issue reached a new level in mid-November, when Mehdi Kessaci, the 20-year-old brother of a well-known local activist against drug-related violence, was assassinated in Marseille. Officials have described this as a "warning killing" aimed at intimidating his brother. For Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, this marks "a frightening tipping point revealing the danger of narco-banditry," which he now directly compares to the threat of terrorism. This issue is certain to dominate the campaigns for the March 2026 municipal elections, as it affects cities of all sizes, from major metropolitan areas to rural towns. No territory is spared.

A Nationwide Expansion of Organized Crime

The data paint a stark picture. Most incidents are still concentrated in the traditional strongholds of criminal activity: Marseille, Grenoble, Lyon, Corsica, and the Paris region. However, organized crime is undergoing unprecedented decentralization, with 144 municipalities affected by serious drug-related violence in 2021, 161 in 2023, and 173 in 2024. This surge corresponds to territorial turf wars over a booming drug market. Investigators note profound changes in the profile of perpetrators. While sophisticated criminal networks still hire professional killers, they increasingly rely on younger, cheaper, more mobile recruits, often drawn from local drug-selling networks or recruited openly via social media across the country.

A Boom in Consumption

Trends in the consumption of drugs are also evolving: in 2024, 342,800 people were implicated in drug-related offenses, of which 85 percent concerned use and 33 percent trafficking. Drug-related offenses rose again in 2024: use-related offenses by 110 percent and trafficking-related offenses by 76 percent. Cocaine consumption has never been higher: 1.1 million people used cocaine at least once in 2023, almost double the level recorded four years earlier, and cannabis consumption continues to rise, with 5 million current users and 21 million people who have used it at least once in their lives. In 2022, over 30 percent of 17-year-olds had already tried cannabis. Drugs are now even present in schoolyards, including through the rising use of nitrous oxide.

A Fight beyond the Government’s Reach

France has adopted new legislative tools, and a landmark bill to "break France out of the narcotrafficking trap" was adopted by the National Assembly in April 2025. The political reality is harsh: Combating narcotrafficking requires a systemic, multi-ministerial effort-from health and education to justice, interior, and foreign affairs. Even a strong, stable government would struggle to meet this challenge. Under current political conditions-with a weakened executive and elections looming in 2026-2027-meaningful progress before the next presidential election appears unlikely.

France’s political paralysis is unfolding at a moment when international tensions are again shaping domestic debates.

A Chilling Warning from the Military

During the November Congress of Mayors, Chief of the Defence Staff Fabien Mandon warned that France must be prepared to "accept losing its children" in the event of a conflict with Russia. His words reverberated powerfully in public opinion, prompting the government to step in. Defence Minister Catherine Vautrin and government spokesperson Maud Bregeon later sought to soften the statement-but the shock remained.

The new program will last ten months (one month of training followed by nine months in the armed forces) and will be open to volunteers aged 18 to 19. Gradual implementation will begin as early as next summer, with candidate selection starting in mid-January. In its first year, the scheme is expected to involve 3,000 young people, with a target of 10,000 participants annually by 2030 and a long-term ambition of 50,000 volunteers per year by 2035.

This initiative will be financed through the updated 2026-2030 Military Programming Law, which allocates over €2 billion specifically for the new service. "It is a major effort, and an indispensable one," Macron insisted.

The announcement effectively buries the Universal National Service (SNU), a signature policy of the 2017 Macron campaign meant to foster national cohesion among 15- to 17-year-olds. Launched in 2019, the SNU never reached the stage of being generally implemented, and the Élysée now concedes that it is no longer suited to the strategic environment reshaped by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

France is far from isolated in this shift: Twelve European countries have maintained or reinstated mandatory conscription, and in the face of worsening geopolitical risks, half a dozen others have recently revived voluntary service models.

For Macron, this new framework is meant to help forge a "new kind of army." France will retain a strengthened professional force as its core, he explained, but it will be reinforced by a broader "depth reserve" drawn from the nation itself. "This new force will come from our youth," the president said. "This new force will come from national service."

In the meantime, President Macron is attempting to play a role in emerging talks on a possible ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. As our senior fellow Michel Duclos recently argued, France is seeking to reassert diplomatic influence, although its success remains uncertain.

A Rare Good News Story: Boualem Sansal Freed

In the midst of these developments, one piece of welcome news is the release of Franco-Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, who was detained in Algeria-although another French national, Christophe Gleize, remains held there for now.

Sansal’s release could offer a window to restart dialogue between Paris and Algiers, especially as the change at the Interior Ministry has coincided with a shift in tone that may help reopen diplomatic channels.

Copyright image: Thomas PADILLA / POOL / AFP
France’s President Emmanuel Macron (C) delivers his speech to unveil a new national military service at the military base in Varces, French Alps, on November 27, 2025. Macron said France to restore voluntary military service starting from summer 2026.