It is particularly the case regarding the French involvement in the Sahel, which has caused the death of over 50 soldiers since 2013 and costs over 1 billion euros per year to taxpayers, while the results are unclear to French citizens - the main issue for France is that of the cost/effectiveness ratio. According to a January 2021 poll conducted by Ifop, only 49% of respondents approve of the French intervention in Mali (32% disapprove and 19% strongly disapprove). By contrast, 73% of them approved in January 2013 (when Operation Serval began) The comparison between Afghanistan for the US and Mali for France has its limits, as Bruno Tertrais explains, but it is worth noting that this announcement comes only a few weeks after Joe Biden announced a full US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. President Macron intends to avoid falling into the same trap of an endless war, unwinnable and unacceptable to French citizens.
What’s next?
Emmanuel Macron announced the end of Operation Barkhane and "a profound transformation of (French) military presence in the Sahel", without giving further details on this transformation. So what could we expect? The new scheme will be determined by the end of June, following discussions with European, American and local partners. It will most likely imply a gradual decrease in the number of French military personnel, down to about 3,500 men within a year, then 2,500 by 2023, compared to the 5,100 deployed today. It will also imply the closure of some bases in Mali. More importantly, a change in doctrine is to be expected: large-scale operations that could expose soldiers' lives to ambushes or improvised explosive devices will be replaced by targeted operations by special forces, intelligence and air strikes.
Above all, rather than a hard exit from the region, what is at stake is a slow transition from a traditional French security operation to a wider multilateral effort. France is particularly counting on the rise of the European task force Takuba. Established in Mali, in Gao and Ménaka, Takuba currently has 600 men, half of whom are French, as well as several dozen Estonians and Czechs, and nearly 140 Swedes. Italy has pledged up to 200 soldiers, Denmark about 100. This is, however, still far from the goal of 2,000 troops announced by Emmanuel Macron at the end of the N'Djamena summit in Chad in February. The French President can be credited with having imposed the Sahel issue on the European agenda, but concrete results have yet to be achieved, which is made harder by the reluctance of several countries, primarily Germany. Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, himself declared in an interview with French journal Le Monde in April 2021: "European states should be more committed. EU citizens must understand that Europe's security does not start on the shores of the Mediterranean, but 4,700 kilometers away." The lack of reaction from European capitals to the French President's June 10 announcement is not a good omen.
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