That process is already underway, and not without pain, since the divisions are only a symptom of the country's deep polarization.
It is important to understand that each vote and each position taken by every elected official is calculated according to the upcoming primaries and campaign clips, regardless of the side. For instance, Manchin may say he obtained a decrease in budgetary ambition, but will be more uncompromising on climate, because of how his campaign is financed and the place that fossil fuels hold in his state. Against the backdrop of these negotiations, powerful lobbyists are weighing in on the choices of elected officials, threatening some of the most popular elements of the plan i.e. the cost of drugs, or the increase in tax rate for the highest incomes. For Biden, the challenge is to get his program passed, even if it is partly watered down. The worst scenario would be to have nothing to show for it, which also sheds light on McConnell's strategy of preventing congressional work by blocking Congress with the threat of a shutdown or default on the debt.
The road to midterms and the 2024 deadline
The congressional elections are not the only ones in sight. In November 2022, 36 states will also elect their governors, who play essential roles (particularly in the organization and control of the presidential election), the importance of which we saw in the last election cycle, up to the January 6, 2021 assault of the Capitol. At the heart of this battle are the same key states, in particular Wisconsin and Michigan, where the presidential election is now being played out. They will be a test to Biden's gamble to win back the vote of Whites without college degrees, which enabled Trump's victory.
All these calculations in domestic politics have produced an increasingly dysfunctional government and Congress, where polarization and partisan gerrymandering not only work to fuel the extremes, but have made the search for compromise with the other side useless (or even counterproductive). This phenomenon, accelerated by Obama’s election in 2008, has a growing impact not only on the rest of the world and on foreign policy choices, especially trade policy (given the weight of the House), but also on domestic choices with global consequences, such as industrial policy, or the ability to govern effectively in the long run. A foreign policy priority for the partners of the United States must be to build their own strategies around this fact, to guard against the consequences of American polarization on their relationship with Washington.
This post is the first of a series of articles that will be tracking the 2022 primaries and midterms. While political science and History would say that the President's party should lose seats - which would translate into a Republican Congress given the narrow of Democratic margin - we should also be wary of theories and precedents. These same ones indicated in 2016 that Trump would not even be the Republican nominee. But the Party is in fighting order, with its base still over-mobilized around Trump who seems increasingly determined to run again in 2024. Over 60% of Republicans believe that the 2020 election was rigged and that Biden is an illegitimate president. A majority also say they are willing to use political violence to "defend the American way of life". For their part, Republican elected officials and leaders, including Mike Pence (whom the Capitol Hill rioters wanted to hang) are participating in the ongoing rewriting of the account of the Capitol Hill assault and the 2020 election. It is thus legitimate to question the future of democracy in America.
Copyright: CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP
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