In this context, the withdrawal will certainly lead to the loss of more government’s positions, as has already been seen along major highways and near smaller towns. Many district and even provincial capitals are surrounded by the Taliban, for example cities like Lashkar Gah and Farah.
In this context, what scenarios do you foresee for domestic security in Afghanistan?
The first and second scenarios are the immediate or mid-term collapse of the Afghan government. The withdrawal undermining the morale of the government forces could lead to their corrosion. In the second scenario, events of 1992 would repeat themselves. Back then, as the government of President Najibullah lost its financial and economic support from Russia, former government forces reoriented themselves towards the camp which they considered the most likely to succeed: the mujahedin. In their sweep to power in the 1990s, the Taliban also forced many of their opponents to join them by using threats and coercion.
However, a short-term corrosion and reorientation of government forces is less likely to happen, as the United States has asserted that it will continue to provide financial and military support to the Afghan government.
For the time being, the Afghan government has considerable military power. Putting together the army, the police (which is mainly a fighting force) and the paramilitary militias, they count for at least 350,000. These forces are not an easy pushover. Many will fight with their backs against the wall, as a result of their deep and long-standing, often personal conflicts with the Taliban after years of fighting and mutual killings. As long as they are provided with external support, they will be able to resist.
At the same time, I do not see the Afghan government winning. Its already weak position under the onslaught of the Taliban is being further undermined by internal factional conflict. It might, however, still be able to resist for quite a while. For the Afghan population, this means that war will continue with killings and the destruction of what remains of the country’s infrastructure.
A not impossible third scenario is that the most powerful military and political factions in Afghanistan (including the Taliban) come to their senses after the foreign troops have left, sit together and try to work out a political solution. Most of the factions are more or less islamists, de facto excluding those who are not, as they can always be called "unislamic" if they raise too many questions about international laws and human rights. The Taliban, from their position of strength, might be able to impose many of their concepts about the future nature of the Afghan state in such a scenario.
In such a scenario, Afghanistan could probably come to peace, but it would also mean that the country will be much more conservative with regards to international norms, especially women’s and human rights, but also civil and political liberties. It would add a big burden on the Afghan population, which has at least enjoyed some freedom and liberties in the last 20 years, albeit precarious and constantly threatened by military operations and various domestic forces.
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