Tell Me How It Ends: Analogies and Scenarios for the Ukraine war

Entering the realm of slightly more credible scenarios, the Finlandization of Ukraine (understood here as a deliberate and sovereign choice of military neutrality) which would take care of one of Russia’s stated concerns: Ukraine’s possible future entry into the Atlantic Alliance. However, those promoting it - and many respectable experts and statesmen have done so in the past thirty years - forget that it would leave the country open to the Kremlin’s influence. This could only happen as part of a global settlement of the war, in which - as Finland did in 1939-1940 - the Ukrainian forces would force Russia into a stalemate. 
 
Then there are scenarios more negative for the Kremlin, starting with a prolonged quagmire for Russian forces, like in Afghanistan or, for the United States, in Iraq. But these parallels only take us so far: for the Kremlin, Ukraine is extraordinarily more important than Afghanistan was for the Soviet Union or Iraq for the United States. For this reason, it is also unlikely that Moscow could just withdraw after having given Ukraine a "lesson", as China did to Vietnam in 1979. 

Moscow could "open a new front" by encouraging and helping the small Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, to declare its independence. Furthermore, it could agitate the nuclear route through aggressive statements (and visible strategic steps in its strategic forces posture), not unlike the Soviet Union did during the Suez crisis of 1956. The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarussian territory - a move now permitted by the change in the country’s constitution - could be another way to attempt to scare Europe and divide the Atlantic Alliance. Finally, as Turkey increasingly sides with Ukraine, blocking the passage of Russian ships in the Bosphorus straits could elicit a Russian response. Echoes of the Crimean War of the 19^th century would then be heard. 
 
Alternatively (and not less likely), escalation could happen inadvertently, as opposed to deliberately. 
A Russian bomber flight could go astray, cross a European border and be downed by NATO forces, not unlike what happened during the Turkish-Russian incident of 2015. In Ukraine, Western instructors or volunteers could be killed en masse during a Russian bombing, prompting outrage and calls for retaliation in the West - recall, for instance, that more than 200 Russian soldiers were killed by US forces in Syria in 2018 during the battle of Khasham. 
 
A comprehensive listing of scenarios would need to include that of a massive Russian military defeat, eventually leading to the departure of Mr. Putin, as for Milosevic after the Kosovo war or the Argentinian junta after the 1982 Falklands war. This, in turn, could open the way for a rapid reconquest of the breakaway Donbas Republics, as Croatian forces did in 1995 during Operation Storm. 
 
Meanwhile, however, Russian forces will continue to obtain the maximum military results on the ground, with no clear objective other than crushing Ukrainian armed forces and State institutions with increasing kinetic force. As Lenin reportedly said, "You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw". Unfortunately, a final analogy must be made: the terrible destruction of Grozny in 1999 - a particularly troubling one as Chechen forces arrive in Ukraine to do the Kremlin’s dirtiest jobs. 
 

Copyright: Anatolii Stepanov / AFP