[Decoding France] - Great Expectations, Loud Communication, Little Action

The two-hour special featuring Emmanuel Macron that aired on TF1 on May 13 was supposed to be the major political communication event of the month. But to call it "underwhelming" would be generous. Although some commentators praised the president’s stamina and evident comfort with the long-format, free-ranging discussion, many were baffled by the complete lack of concrete announcements. Rather than being oriented toward the future, the broadcast was firmly anchored in the past-and an uninspiring one at that, as Macron struggled to defend his record convincingly.

Choose France Nevertheless

Macron might have had more to boast about had he been able to wait a few days. The day after the broadcast, the consulting firm EY revealed that France remains Europe’s most attractive destination for foreign investors for the sixth consecutive year. Although job creation from these projects has dipped slightly, France is still ahead of the UK and Germany in this respect. With 104 new R&D initiatives, France has consolidated its place as Europe’s top hub for innovative investment.

The industrial sector also posted good numbers: There were 415 new manufacturing projects in France in 2023, making the country the destination for more than a quarter of all foreign industrial investment across Europe. These are key wins for the country’s ambitious reindustrialization strategy. The Choose France summit, held in Versailles and concluding on May 21, was intended to highlight exactly this momentum.

Still Strong on Foreign Policy and Europe

The one arena in which Macron still commands authority is in discussions concerning foreign affairs and the EU. Notably, this was the only segment of the TF1 program broadly praised by commentators. In line with his recent activism on the diplomatic front, from coordinating European pressure on Moscow to consider a ceasefire to entering into a strategic cooperation with Poland (on May 9, Donald Tusk and Emmanuel Macron signed a groundbreaking treaty in Nancy), the president hammered home his new mantra of "preserving our freedom" as the raison d’être of the European project. Along these lines, he called forcefully for more protection against Chinese distortions in the Single Market and for more support for the steel sector throughout the continent. In another sign of renewed momentum for the Franco-German duo, President Macron issued a joint call for European simplification and competitiveness with his German counterpart during Chancellor Merz’s first formal foreign visit as head of government, which was to Paris.

Macron’s international assertiveness was also on display on May 9, when he traveled to Kyiv alongside British Labour leader Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for the "Summit of the Coalition of the Willing." This high-level visit aimed to demonstrate continued European support for Ukraine amid mounting US uncertainty and to accelerate joint military deliveries. Macron reaffirmed France’s pledge to supply Mirage 2000 fighter jets and to expand training for Ukrainian pilots on French soil while encouraging partners to match this level of commitment. The symbolic power of the visit-on Europe Day, no less-was not lost on observers. It marked a deliberate attempt to consolidate a new European security leadership trio in the face of faltering transatlantic unity and to shift the center of gravity toward continental initiatives.

France has also endorsed the Netherlands’ request for a review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which, like all EU agreements, is contingent on human rights compliance. If the review confirms that human rights violations have occurred, France has signaled that it would support suspending the agreement.

Finally, President Macron will also deliver the keynote address at this year’s meeting of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit, held in Singapore (May 30-June 1, 2025). He has requested his administration to update France’s Indo-Pacific strategy and is expected to signal commitment for a strong sustained French presence in that region in the years ahead.

A Revived Republican Right, A Muted Far Right

The other major political development in May, beyond the president’s omnipresence, was the decisive victory of Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau in the leadership race for Les Républicains. The stakes are high: By 2027, it will have been twenty years since the mainstream right last won a national election in France. Retailleau’s win-securing 74 percent of the vote against Laurent Wauquiez’s 26 percent-solidifies his grip on the party. The conservative force, heir to the UMP that propelled Nicolas Sarkozy to the presidency in 2007, also boasts 77,000 new members, bringing its total membership to nearly 120,000.

Retailleau plans to retain his ministerial post for now, leveraging his visibility despite suspicions of collusion with Macron’s party. Eventually, however, he will need to distinguish himself if he intends to launch a credible presidential bid. On the left, a similar repositioning could emerge at the Socialist Party’s Congress, scheduled for June 12.

The National Rally, for its part, has gone remarkably quiet. Following Marine Le Pen’s conviction last month, the far-right party seems to be keeping a low profile. The internal dilemma remains unresolved: Will Le Pen run again in 2027, or will the party pivot to a "Plan B" with Jordan Bardella?

Meanwhile, the centrist camp is struggling. Prime Minister François Bayrou’s approval ratings are tanking, not least due to a parliamentary inquiry into the Betharram affair. Debates on end-of-life legislation-particularly regarding assisted dying-have also absorbed political energy, exposing rifts across party lines.

While inspired by concerns from Gulf states such as the UAE, the report avoids alarmism and does not recommend banning the Brotherhood or its affiliates. Instead, it points to their influence in local politics, associations, and some schools, urging stricter oversight. Critics note that the report reflects internal government tensions, with the Interior Ministry pushing a tougher stance and the Elysée opting for a more cautious, institutional approach. Macron has requested further proposals, and no concrete policy announcements have followed yet, although the issue could become more prominent ahead of the 2026 municipal elections.

And what about the budget?

Amid political maneuvering and speculation about referenda, a major challenge looms: the preparation of the 2026 budget. Prime Minister François Bayrou has floated the idea of putting the budget to a national referendum-an unusual and controversial proposal. For now, that scenario remains highly improbable for a number of reasons.

First, Emmanuel Macron made no such announcement during his May 13 television appearance, suggesting that the budget is not on his referendum agenda. Second, from a constitutional point of view, the idea is shaky at best: No French budget has ever been put to a referendum, and it is unlikely that Article 11 of the Constitution allows for this. Finally, the political risk is obvious. This isn’t a popular spending plan-it’s an austerity budget with €40 billion in cuts. If put to a vote, it would almost certainly be rejected, weakening Bayrou further.

For now, the government remains vague about exactly where the savings will come from. Local governments, public agencies, and operational budgets are the likely targets, but the details are still fuzzy. As pressure mounts and the ministries-especially Defense-lobby for more, not less, funding, the budget negotiations may prove as much a political battle as an economic one.

Copyright image : Ludovic MARIN / AFP
France's President Emmanuel Macron appears on the main control room screens of the French channel TF1 during his guest appearance on a special program in Saint-Denis, north of Paris, on May 13, 2025.