Back from Kyiv - A European War

A hotel in Kyiv: modern, comfortable, and part of an international chain: it could just as easily be in Boston or Stockholm. Except the clientele primarily consists of young men or men in their prime, visibly well-built, as one used to see in Sarajevo or Kabul, or in other war zones: journalists, military personnel on mission, foreign agents or experts of various kinds?

Around one in the morning, sirens begin to sound in the distance. A mechanical voice then quickly comes out of a loudspeaker in the room itself: "The hotel management invites you to proceed to the shelter located in the second basement." We reach the shelter, set up in an underground garage where rows of camp beds in the semi-darkness form a vast dormitory. Occasional visitors will find it difficult to fall asleep while the regulars quickly drift off. The most experienced have consulted an app indicating it is only a low-risk drone attack, and consequently remained in their rooms.

The Omnipresence of Death

Around the hotel, the wide avenues still bear the mark of the Soviet era, although a proliferation of trendy shops and restaurants, often with daring menus, show a clear desire to turn their backs on the past and look to Europe or elsewhere in the wider world. The tall, golden domes of Saint Sophia, the mother church of Slavic Orthodoxy, beautifully maintained, are standing a little farther away; and between the two lies the square known as Maidan (the Ukrainian word for "square"), divided into several sites and dominated by the Hotel Ukraine. In a sort of grove, a memorial commemorates the victims of the 2014 events who were killed by gunfires shot from the Hotel Ukraine. It is customary in this country to erect small flags in memory of the homeland's daughters and sons killed on the battlefield: a sea of flags, accompanied by photos, cover various parts of the Independence Square (the real name of Maidan), and particularly the "Wall of Heroes."

When one sees all these signs of mourning, when one hears news reports of fighting on the front lines and raids on towns and infrastructure, one gets the distinct feeling that death, present for so long, is still lurking in the country. The impression is even stronger, we are told, in the villages, where silent flags in modest cemeteries evoke the country's children who have fallen in battle.

Disillusionment came very quickly after the two-hour Russian-Ukrainian meeting in Istanbul on May 16. The Russians are not looking for peace but for Ukraine to surrender; the Ukrainians aspire to peace-or at least a ceasefire-but are not prepared to accept any agreement that would undermine their sovereignty and their ability to defend themselves against further attacks.

In contrast, patriotism is of course constantly on the surface, but social attitudes toward the war are ambiguous: soldiers are not called up until the age of 25 and those on the front line are not granted leave. Those under 25 are spared for demographic reasons but in response to criticism, particularly from the US, the government has introduced a voluntary enlistment scheme for those aged 18 and over; but it is said to have had little success. In the middle and upper classes, women with children approaching the age of 18 prefer to emigrate with them to avoid them being caught up in military service.

Another topic animates discussions with European visitors. Why isn't Europe doing more? One must say it: this is the expression of a form of anger sometimes appearing in heated conversations: "Can't you see that after Ukraine, it will be the turn of the Baltic states or some other target in the Balkans? Why haven't you done more to revive your defense industry and why have you transferred nothing more than your surplus military equipment to Ukraine?" There is obviously great disappointment toward the United States as well: for our interlocutors, Biden symbolizes this approach of empathy and real support, but never enough and rarely in time. Trump makes no secret of his partiality for Putin, and everything suggests-including his May 19 conversation with the Russian president-that he intends above all to withdraw from this conflict.

A European War

Among officials, questions about the future abound. If the Americans turn away from the issue, will the Europeans be able to step in to help the Ukrainians? If a ceasefire agreement is reached, would it not be equivalent to those concluded under the Minsk Process, with no real practical effect? Is Ukraine not, at best, doomed to an unstable ceasefire? Wouldn't a halt to the fighting, in one form or another, also trigger many other painful problems for Ukrainians? For example: demobilization of at least part of the contingent, the risk of the workforce needed for reconstruction fleeing the country, the obligation to hold complicated elections, the revival of an economy where everything will have to be reinvented, the acceleration of negotiations with Brussels, which can only be painful, etc.

A source close to Zelensky concludes: "Yes, the situation is likely to remain precarious for a very long time, but the danger that Ukraine could disappear or fall under the control of the Kremlin seems to be receding. Whatever happens, we will remain an independent country." One might be tempted to add: whatever happens, we are witnessing the birth of a nation, albeit a painful one. A frustrated nation, perhaps, emerging traumatized from the ordeal, as was the case in Georgia after 2008, for example. And where, if we think along the same lines, could pro-Russian forces return one day? Analysts of Ukrainian politics whom we consulted replied: "A populist, nationalist, perhaps anti-European government could be a possibility, but a pro-Russian one is very difficult to imagine."

Secondly, we must ensure that within ten years Ukraine is a prosperous country with a modern economy driven by key sectors, well integrated into European structures and moving away from the ghosts of its past; a country whose trials and tribulations will help other Europeans to face what must be bluntly called the return of war in Europe.

Copyright image : Carlos REYES / AFP
The Independence Monument on Maidan Square, Kiev