However, Russia’s growing influence in Africa and Europe’s need to wean itself from Russian energy will increase the importance of Africa for Europe.
Given the increasing importance of Russia and its Wagner militia in the Sahel, what do you see as the future of international military operations in the region, such as the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)?
MINUSMA faces an increasingly difficult operating environment: the viability of the Algiers Accord is in severe doubt, and there has been little progress with its implementation, an obstacle that is also facing the current junta. Levels of violence are rising among both non-state armed actors, such as jihadist groups, and the Malian security forces, which are regularly accused of committing massacres, recently with Wagner Group mercenaries. In addition, the Malian junta has worked to decrease MINUSMA’s political and military space by introducing new conditionalities and rules, preventing it from working effectively. Within this context, continued collaboration with the FAMA (Malian armed forces) seems difficult to imagine. MINUSMA will also lose the logistical support and strategic reassurance that was provided by French forces. Given these circumstances, it seems unlikely that the Mission will be able to increase its forces, yet going home is also not a satisfiable option, given the current context of severe human rights abuses and MINUSMA’s mandate to protect civilians. One option would be to prioritize the Protection of Civilians (PoC) and try to revive the Algiers Agreement. This would allow for a political structure of transition to work from, but could raise new issues, given the security situation and the junta’s extensive transition period, which could very well end up being even longer.
Copyright: FLORENT VERGNES / AFP
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