Given his seniority in the European Council, and that France and Germany both face periods of political uncertainty about their leaders, the opportunity may arise for Rutte to play a more central role in EU affairs, for instance in helping to navigate a path for an economic recovery after Covid-19. But equally, and perhaps more likely, he could fall back on his instincts and pursue primarily a narrow agenda based on Dutch national interests.
D66 may insist that the new government has an EU affairs minister. But who would be the Dutch Clément Beaune? In all likelihood, it would need to be a close confidante of Prime Minister Rutte, given the European Council’s central role in EU decision-making. And because so many European issues are now Chefsache, Rutte will remain the face of the Netherlands in Brussels. Plus ça change.
5. On some issues, the Netherlands are more French than people think
On monetary-financial issues, the Dutch will continue to be hawks, potentially setting up a clash with Paris, Madrid and Rome. But in some areas France and the Netherlands are increasingly seeing eye-to-eye. The 2019 Franco-Dutch non-paper on trade and sustainability and their joint position on reducing the dominance of Big Tech platforms already pointed to closer Franco-Dutch alignment in the economic realm.
All the parties that are likely to join the next Dutch coalition government are also in favour of more robust EU policies to promote economic resilience. The economically-liberal VVD now wants to "protect the single market" by insisting on level playing field provisions in trade agreements, reshoring critical supply chains and blocking foreign investments if necessary. The recent Spanish-Dutch non-paper on strategic autonomy also spells out that the Netherlands wants to improve EU-wide investment screening, reduce EU dependencies by diversifying supply chains and address state aid imbalances.
Traditionally, the free-trading Dutch have been viewed as the EU’s staunchest advocates of liberal economic policies. But today, on these issues, the Netherlands is decidedly learning to speak French.
Copyright: SEM VAN DER WAL / ANP / AFP
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