Ukraine has been an important arms provider to China. How would you describe the current dynamic in the arms trade relationship?
Facing the post-Tiananmen arms embargo enacted by the EU, China turned to Ukraine as a source of military technologies, seeking equipment for the PLA Navy, the Air Force and the country’s space industry. Some of the key projects have been noted above.
However, the situation began to change after 2014, and as a result of the intensification of US-China strategic competition. Kyiv, being in a military conflict with Russia, relies on the help of Western allies, primarily the US and NATO, and seeks to join the Alliance. As a result, cooperation with China began to run into obstacles, given China’s position as a strategic competitor and even a threat to the US in the Asia-Pacific region.
A vivid confirmation of this was the aforementioned Motor Sich case, with the help of technologies from which China could significantly enhance the capabilities of its aviation. The US obviously played a major role in preventing the deal from happening.
Another factor that imposes restrictions on Ukrainian-Chinese defense cooperation is Ukraine's attempts to obtain defense technologies from the West, especially in the field of aviation, air defense, missile defense and naval forces. At the moment, Ukraine is implementing a number of joint projects with the UK, Turkey, and the US. In that context, Ukraine must create a model of cooperation with China that reassures those countries that their technologies will not be transferred to China.
As a non-EU member, Ukraine is not formally bound by the embargo on the supply of military products to China, and so far continues to cooperate with China, especially since it has not yet been possible to replace the Chinese market with the Western one. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the volume of Ukrainian exports to China is estimated at approximately USD 80-90 million annually, although the exact figures are unclear due to methodology peculiarities. General Director of Ukrspetsexport Vadim Nozdria estimated the sale of weapons and services to China at USD 70 million, mentioning China as one of the most important markets for Ukraine, alongside Turkey and Pakistan. However, I believe Ukraine does limit its cooperation with China by not transferring cutting-edge technologies which can significantly strengthen the position of the PLA and create threats for the US in the Asia-Pacific region.
Copyright: JOHANNA GERON / POOL / AFP
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