Boris Johnson, the Antithesis of Margaret Thatcher?

But is this optimism justified? Are my friends not the same people who believed, in 2016, that a ‘Leave’ victory in the referendum was impossible?

Noxious climate

Caution is all the more necessary precisely because Johnson’s management is anything but controlled, as demonstrated by his actions with regards to both Brexit and Covid-19. The word most often used is "chaos." It is almost as if the Conservative Party has overtaken the Labour Party in their public displays of division and contradiction. The recent departure of Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s éminence grise, was only the latest and most dramatic illustration of the poisonous climate within the UK government and the Conservative Party at large. At a time when the Labour opposition has finally found a competent, moderate and responsible leader in Keir Starmer, it is the Conservative Party that appears to be disintegrating. But the next election— barring unforeseen circumstances—will not be happening for a long time, and much can happen in the next four years.

Internationally, Donald Trump’s defeat is—at least symbolically—a setback for Johnson. However, the ‘closeness’ between the two should not be exaggerated as, apart from their populist leanings and their hair color, they share very little in terms of culture, education and background. The Prime Minister suffers from his weakness and indecisiveness, and the outgoing President from his over-forcefulness.

What really weakens Britain’s position today is not Trump’s departure from the White House, but that of the UK from the European Union. After Brexit, Joe Biden will be even more tempted to look first to Berlin and, ideally for us Frenchmen, towards the Franco-German power base. Britain’s influence is shrinking like a skin of sorrow and Brexit, like a magnifying mirror, highlights its intrinsic limitations and weaknesses.

In short, an hour of reckoning is approaching for Britain. Its ‘special’ relationship with the United States is, in reality, only special to one side, the UK. Seen from Washington, the United Kingdom is just one partner among many others - the Second World War ended seventy-five years ago – and far behind the European Union, or even Germany herself. In Asia, London will have to choose between principles, such as defending Hong Kong and UK economic interests. Can she unilaterally resist Beijing’s actions? Europe is already struggling in efforts to present a united front against China, but particularly when it comes to trade (if not technology), if Europeans do manage to work together, they can make a difference. This is not the case for Great Britain, and its weaknesses will appear even greater if Scotland decides to leave the United Kingdom.

The UK thus appears increasingly isolated without and divided within. In this context, everything indicates that Johnson, like Thatcher, will go down in history as one of the most important prime ministers in Britain’s post-war history, but for very different reasons—Thatcher shook the country awake, whereas Johnson is in the process of misplacing and weakening its place in the world.

Courtesy of  Les Echos, where the article was published on 21/11/2020.

Copyright : Leon Neal / POOL / AFP