Among the most concerning developments for US power projection in East Asia is the Chinese Navy's long-range anti-ship capability. China is further investing in what Deng Xiaoping would have called a “pocket of excellence” as more 055 class destroyers (two are already in service today), which have 112 vertical launch cells, combining firepower and versatility, will be commissionned in the next decade. At the Huludao shipyard, a nuclear submarine is built every 15 months. At this rate, we can expect China to have 13 operational nuclear submarines by 2030 - a serious threat to foreign naval deployments within the first island chain. These naval developments should not hide the fact that the PLA is already deploying an air defense system that would seriously complicate US air operations, even though it appears that its most capable system, the S-400 purchased from Russia, has not yet been deployed on its eastern coast.
The end of US naval air supremacy within the first island chain forces the United States to consider the geographic disposition of its forces in a wider perimeter, safe from Chinese ballistic missiles—hence the vital role of Australia. It also forces the US to accumulate the systems that will allow it to penetrate the first island chain, an environment that will be increasingly saturated with Chinese defense systems, underlying the importance of the SSNs.
The challenge of deterring the Chinese use of force
In this context, the challenge is to convince China that it will not achieve political gains through military means. The ability to inflict considerable losses on the Chinese - if not to "sink it in 72 hours" as suggested by Michele Flournoy (Biden’s potential Defense Secretary pick) - then becomes the guiding thread for US and allied deployment in the Indo-Pacific. If there are real threats to the very survival of its navy, will China risk invading Taiwan?
The US Navy's investment plans will not be sufficient to restore American supremacy. Not that the naval construction plan submitted to Congress by the Department of Defense in December 2020 is not ambitious. It foresees a Navy size between 382 and 466 ships in 2051, at an annualized cost of $34 billion per year, 4% of which is for unmanned systems. The US Navy's annual budget would increase from its current $200 billion to $279 billion in 2051. These plans revise the 308-ship Navy format adopted in 2015, as well as the 355-ship Navy format adopted in 2016.
Given that this investment is not enough, Biden’s Department of Defense will seek more allied alignment on this post- air and sea power supremacy deterrence posture toward China. This need is reflected in the notion of “integrated deterrence”.
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