The US-Saudi Recalibration 

Moreover the US President, who refuses to speak with the de facto ruler of the Kingdom, designated the Secretary of defense as the Prince’s interlocutor. Hence a balance was forged between the imperatives of realpolitik in relations with the Kingdom, and the moral values professed by the administration. It is also important to note here that the United States withdrew its support from the war in Yemen and froze arms sales to the Kingdom. The administration also demands that the harassment of dissidents abroad and their mistreatment in Saudi Arabia be stopped. In fact, it is through this type of pressure that the prominent woman dissident Loujain al-Hathloul was finally, but conditionally, released. These will be the parameters within which the relations between the US and Saudi Arabia will evolve under the new administration.

Opening up Saudi Arabia to the world is part of MBS's 2030 Vision, a strategy aimed at reducing the country's dependence on oil and diversifying its economy. How is the country positioning itself towards the new American administration, whose attitude towards the Kingdom isn’t quite favorable?

The opening of the Kingdom, and the diversification of the economy as the oil age gradually recedes, will continue. MBS himself outlined his program, launching "The Line", a 170 km belt designed without cars or roads in the now fabled city of Neom, that would connect communities. Other mega projects are Red Sea Development and the Qiddiya entertainment city, both aiming to boost the tourism industry. Biden’s strategic or foreign policy decisions are not expected to hamper support for economic reform.

What is the impact of the US-Saudi recalibration at a regional level?

It is not just the relations with Saudi Arabia that the United States is recalibrating. Yet, there is also a lot of continuity. In fact, on some of the major decisions that the Trump administration took, Joe Biden has not changed course. The Embassy will remain in Jerusalem, but the Palestinians will also receive services and will not be treated as if they did not exist. The Golan annexation decision is not going to be reversed any time soon, if ever. The most important change for all America’s allies is the reignition of the JCPOA. After an unpromising start, Tehran and Washington have begun to negotiate. The Gulf countries are adjusting themselves to the new situation as well. The UAE had begun contacts with Iran before Biden got elected. Numerous reports indicated that Iranian and Saudi officials met in Baghdad and finally, a few days ago, Iranian authorities acknowledged that the talks were ongoing and were aimed at reducing tensions. Such a development leaves Israel alone in pursuing a very hard line against Iran, whose engineers have been assassinated, and whose nuclear facility in Natanz has been attacked by Israel. 

The Abraham Accords provides the Gulf countries with some degree of Israeli security guarantee. Adjusting their policies to that of the American President under these circumstances is expedient.

Copyright: MANDEL NGAN / POOL / AFP