Ready for the Second Round? Interview with Olivier Dabène on the Colombian Presidential Elections

On Sunday 27 May, Colombian voters were called to the polls for the first round of the presidential election. This election - the first since the historic peace agreement signed with the communist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)- is decisive for the future of the country. Iván Duque, candidate of the far right and mentored by former President Alvaro Uribe, won with 39.2% of the votes. He will now have to confront Gustavo Petro (25.1%), former mayor of Bogotá and candidate of the independent left, in the second round, on 17 June. Olivier Dabène, professor of political science at Sciences Po Paris and president of the Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC), shares his analysis.

The FARC, converted into a political party, announced their withdrawal from the presidential race. What role, if any, is the peace agreement signed in 2016 with President Juan Manuel Santos playing in these elections?

While the right wing has made no secret of its intention to review some parts of the agreement, in particular the granting of parliamentary seats to former guerrilla combatants, the FARC have disappeared from the electoral campaign and peace, surprisingly, was not at the center of the debates. Other topics discussed during the campaign included education, corruption, the economic model, migration pressures following the Venezuelan crisis and the environment. 

Peace could however be discussed in between the two rounds, as the two finalists have diametrically opposed views on this issue:

• The left, represented by Gustavo Petro, wants to strengthen reforms that can guarantee a lasting peace in the country, in particular the reduction of inequalities. 
• The right, led by Iván Duque, insists on the need to try FARC members for their crimes.

As predicted in the polls, Iván Duque is leading the first round of the elections with 39.2% of the votes. He will nonetheless still have to go through a second round on 17 June. Is the victory of the far right candidate assured?

Iván Duque’s victory is likely, because he will most probably benefit from postponements of votes of supporters of Vargas Lleras, former Vice President of Santos, who arrived in 4th position. Votes of those who wish to block the left and Gustavo Petro could also advantage him. As former guerrilla combatant and mayor of Bogotá, Petro is hated by many Colombians who consider him a subversive and authoritarian leader.

However, the victory is not assured, because the candidate of the Democratic Center is a close relative of former President Alvaro Uribe, who strongly polarized the country. Uribe is very popular in some circles and in some regions. Indeed, he is perceived as a leader who does not hesitate to use very repressive policies to combat the crime and insecurity that undermine the country. However, these strong methods offend Human Rights defenders and all Colombians who dream of peace in the country. “Anti-uribism" is therefore also very powerful in Colombia. 

The two candidates are popular within their political families, but also trigger a strong rejection outside of their respective circles. The game of alliances, and especially the participation rate, will therefore be the main factors determining the final result.

Gustavo Petro, candidate of the independent left, also reached the second round of the presidential election, with 25.1% of the votes. How should this historic result be interpreted?

The presence of the left in the second round, at the end of a vote marked by a record turnout - 53.4%, i.e. 12 points higher than in 2014 - is a first for Colombia. The reintegration of the FARC into political life has enabled the left to get rid of the suspicion of proximity with the guerrillas, which had handicapped the party on the electoral level. It must now face the accusation of complicity with the "castro-communism" embodied by Venezuela. 

In the event of a defeat, the law provides that Gustavo Petro becomes a senator. In this capacity, he will be able to position himself as leader of the opposition in the next 4 years and prepare his candidacy for 2022. Beyond that, he could also inspire hope to the entire Latin American left, battered by the electoral defeats in Argentina and Chile.