The return to normal will take time given that a share of final demand is lost, especially for services such as hotels, cafés, restaurants, transport, etc.
The crucial assumption underlying these estimates is that of a sustainable and sustained recovery once containment is lifted. To be sustainable, the end of containment must be carefully prepared to avoid a relapse of the epidemic, which means protection for workers and a large virus testing capability. On the economic side, a necessary condition for a sustained recovery is that companies, especially small ones, are able to get through the crisis without going bankrupt, while their turnover plummets, their debts and charges accumulate, and high uncertainties surround future demand. From this point of view, measures decided by the government – deferral of taxes and charges, compensation for short-time working, bank guarantees, etc. – which could be summarised under the banner of "No Bankruptcies" are the right ones. Still, these need to be implemented without delay and without bureaucratic obstacles.