When global warming heats up geopolitics

Global warming also increases the risk of violent conflict by demonstrating the ineffectiveness of government action. In the Middle East, the cases of Tunisia, Egypt and Syria are perfect examples. From 2006 to 2011, northern Syria experienced an extreme drought, aggravated in consequences by the authorities’ calamitous management. The "Syrian Spring" had many causes, first and foremost of which is the extreme brutality with which initial protests were repressed. But the drought played a role: the popular uprising manifested itself in the cities most affected by the famine and the influx of hundreds of thousands of Syrians, climate refugees in their own country. In the same region, climate change is also exacerbating tensions between countries such as Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, over the latter’s pursuit of the Grand Renaissance Dam project on the Nile.

Post-carbon world

In Central Asia, global warming is aggravating tensions over access to water between Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. On the Mekong, China’s construction of an upstream dam, paired with an ongoing drought, is leading to a deterioration of the already difficult relations between Beijing and the countries downstream of the river. In Central America, climate change has combined with insecurity and economic stagnation - each reinforced by the poison of corruption - to push hundreds of thousands of people onto the roads.

One could go on listing situations that illustrate the geopolitical consequences of climate change and the link between the increase in temperatures and the multiplication of conflicts. For a more complete understanding, we must also consider the impact of measures taken to combat climate change on the geopolitical balance of the world. Numerous countries are or will be beneficiaries of the change. Countries such as Chile, which has large quantities of lithium, indispensable for electric batteries, or the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), home to 80% of the ingredients needed to manufacture cell phones, or China, of course, with its near-monopoly on rare minerals.

In one way or another, the objective of a post-carbon world transforms the existing geopolitical balances to the detriment of countries with fossil fuel industries. This holds true especially for those, like Russia, that do not create wealth and are content, for the most part, to make a living from the exploitation of hydrocarbons.

In this domain, as in many others, Donald Trump’s America has been a perfect counter-example, from its withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement to the closure of its borders to refugees from Central and Latin America. The United States thus allowed China to boost its soft power in the fight against global warming.

Defending democracy

It is all the more important for democratic regimes to get involved in the fight against global warming because it is dangerous to leave this fight to ecologists alone, and in particular to the most radical among them.

It is not a matter of saving the planet from man, but of saving it for man. A significant number of young people consider that the fight against global warming or the fight to preserve biodiversity are so important that they would dispense with interest in other causes, such as the defense of democracy.

With passionate moderacy, we must protect the world from the selfishness and blindness of some and the ideological imperialism of others.

"War is too serious a thing to be left to the military alone," said Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, "global warming is too serious a matter to be left to ecologists alone".

Copyright : Don MacKinnon / AFP

Courtesy of Les Echos (published on 03/10/2020)