The case will be made that sanctions are too costly for Europe’s economy to keep up in the long term. For example, will Europe’s new energy policy still be tenable if the fighting stops, and a peace agreement is reached?
Is the key to be found in Beijing?
One of the key questions raised by the conflict is the extent to which Moscow and Beijing are aligned. Debates on China and Russia’s relationship have been revived, with Moscow asking the Chinese for military assistance. It is worth noting that these discussions also underlines Russia’s lack of military preparation.
Faced with the possibility that Vladimir Putin, exasperated by the obstacles he encounters, will lose all restraint, some believe that only Xi Jinping could incite him to moderation. Worried about the world economy’s rapid destabilization, the Chinese leader could mediate between Ukraine and Russia. This is, however, unlikely. First, because China, despite certain ambiguities, is clearly on Russia's side. Second, because Chinese diplomacy is not equipped for a mediation role.
Undoubtedly, China will face a strategic dilemma of its own. The first option would be to go all the way in supporting Moscow and refusing to comply with American sanctions against Russia. This would expose China to countermeasures from Washington. As a consequence, this would bring about an "economic decoupling" with the West, which is not in China’s current interests. Alternatively, China could continue supporting Russia politically, or even economically, but avoid siding too far with Moscow’. This would preserve the current globalization dominated by the West, but which China needs in order to pursue its own economic development.
The talks between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping on March 18 likely addressed these considerations. China may not be able to end the war. It may, however, hold the key to preventing Vladimir Putin's further aggressions once a way out of the crisis has been found.
Copyright: Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP
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