Vladimir Putin, On the Way To A New Russian Imperialism?

In the West, we appear surprised that history is repeating itself. But we should not be. Critically, Putin and Xi Jinping have decided that the time has come to take off their masks. While claiming that their acts are defensive rather than offensive, the Russians and the Chinese undoubtedly consider that America is too weak and Europe too divided to oppose their desire to rewrite history. Two key events took place in 2021 that strengthened Moscow and Beijing’s conviction that time is on their side: the march on Washington’s Capitol on January 6 and the fall of Kabul on August 15. Weakened internally and humiliated externally, America is no longer the country that it once was - the world’s sole superpower after the collapse of the USSR and the relative isolation of China following the repression of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. Russia’s imperial ambition to regain the status it enjoyed at the time of the Soviet Union is not surprising, but rather the culmination of strategic intentions long harbored by the Russian Empire’s current tsar, Vladimir Putin. Moscow has taken initiative and has gained the military means to do so. Never mind if the limitations of Russia’s hospitals, and its public health system more generally, are exposed to the world (the country counts 700,000 Covid-19 deaths, six times more than France in a population that is only twice as big). What matters to Russia is that the modernization of its armies allows it to regain the place it should never have lost, in a newly restored triangle of power: Washington, Beijing, Moscow. Even though Russia remains the weakest element in this triangle, especially in economic and demographic terms, the progress it has made in just over twenty years is considerable; on the military front, it is spectacular. From Crimea to Syria with a detour in Kazakhstan: no one can doubt the efficiency of Russia’s troops and elite commands.

This success does not, however, come without a cost. By moving too far and too fast at a time when the West was moving in the opposite direction - almost always by doing too little, too late - Russia breathed new life into NATO and China induced the creation of AUKUS. 

In fact, by using their past humiliations as the driver for their current ambitions, Russia and China have aroused fear in their immediate and even distant neighbors.

According to conventional wisdom, fear is a bad advisor. Nonetheless, it is becoming difficult to fool ourselves when it comes to Moscow and Beijing’s intentions. Despite its weakened role in the international system, America is still the world’s leading military power. When it has the will and the means, it can eliminate all those it considers its worst enemies. The successive leaders of ISIS have learned this the hard way, as in Syria just a few days ago. NATO is not as quick and dynamic as it once was, and its leader, Joe Biden, is not as charismatic as one might hope for. But when trouble looms on the horizon, the mere existence of the military alliance is reassuring, and that is what matters. Putin has transformed transatlantic relations for the better, to the point that there almost appears to be a division of labor between Paris and Washington. It is up to America to speak out and send troops; and it is up to France, and then Germany, to keep the door open for dialogue and diplomatic negotiations. Neither Paris, Washington, nor Berlin, hold the slightest illusions about Russia’s true objectives. At a time when Moscow is striving to replace France in Mali, perhaps in all of French-speaking Africa, how could France be blind to Russia’s deeper aims?

Russia is not afraid of western expansion in its neighboring countries. It is using this as a pretext to advance its pawns and to become, once again, what it has always been: an expanding empire. If that is not the most fundamental characteristic of the country’s identity, its deepest nature - what is?

Copyright: Alexei Druzhinin / SPUTNIK / AFP