The Transatlantic Alliance in the Midst of COVID-19: Missing (In)Action?

Should this crisis and the massive economic fallout provide added fuel to the populist resurgence, the transatlantic alliance would very much be in doubt. In Europe’s major states populists all fell short of power, creating a sense that the populist wave has crested. But it’s worth remembering that the Nazi rise to power in Weimar Germany required not one, but two economic crises.

The critical political trend to watch then is whether COVID-19 helps or hurts incumbent political leaders and parties currently holding power.

It is possible that COVID-19 could cause public opinion to rally around leaders and governments in this time of crisis. In Europe, it could further blunt populist leaders and parties who thrive on discontent. But in the United States, it could aid Trump’s re-election, which may result in the demise of the alliance.

However, when assessing the United States, it seems extremely unlikely that this crisis benefits Donald Trump politically. There is a nagging fear that the Trump Administration will use the crisis to obtain emergency powers, seeking to emulate those taken by other autocrats or illiberal leaders such as Orbán or Modi. But the opposite has largely happened. Instead, Trump’s federal government has been missing in action. Trump’s handling of this crisis has been nothing short of disastrous. He dismissed COVID-19 as just being like the flu, he failed to urgently mobilize the massive potential power of the US government, and he has looked extremely out of his depth.

Unlike most political topics, which are followed by just a narrow slice of the electorate, COVID-19 is being followed by literally everyone. The performance of other countries is also being closely watched, further highlighting the inept US response. Americans know that their government is failing. And while its approval numbers have seen a slight uptick since the crisis began, they are now beginning their decline. The likelihood is that the US death toll will now exceed 100,000 and the total mishandling and negligence in the administration’s response will likely create a significant backlash.

But when America returns to the global stage it will be different. America will be chastened. This crisis hits right at the heart of America’s can-do superpower identity. A younger generation simply does not buy into the notion of American exceptionalism, as their lifetimes have been dominated by the ineptitude of the Iraq War, a massive economic crisis, crushing student debt, unaffordable housing, costly childcare, fear of domestic gun violence, the election of Donald Trump, and now a totally negligent and inept response to a crisis that will kill many of their parents and loved ones. This millennial generation, who are now in their late 20s and 30s, are on the verge of assuming positions of power. This generation underestimates the good America can achieve, as they are dubious of America’s ability to do great things on its own. Yet they also strongly believe in engaging the world and being good global citizens. Thus, more so than ever before in the post-war transatlantic relationship, America will be desperate to not just work with others, but form genuine partnerships.

COVID-19, in this optimistic reading, will therefore discredit America’s populist in chief and usher in a new administration with a mandate for change and a strong desire not just to revive the transatlantic alliance but to forge a stronger partnership.

The fear, however, is that while America may overcome its populists, Europe will not. It is possible then that America and Europe switch places.

Europe’s response to the economic crisis may be inadequate, lack solidarity, and leave considerable room for populist parties to pounce on the fecklessness of the EU. COVID-19 could therefore fuel anti-government and anti-EU sentiment, powering another populist wave, perhaps even taking power in a major European country, such as Italy.

It is impossible to predict COVID-19’s impact. But those who support the transatlantic alliance in Europe need to recognize the stakes and act accordingly.

Copyright: Sarah Silbiger / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP