Macron's State Visit: If Biden Wants to Talk to Europe, He Must Talk to France

The war in Ukraine was also at the heart of discussions. Joe Biden mentioned a hypothetical contact with Putin if the latter was considering withdrawing from Ukraine. An approach immediately brushed aside by Moscow. Another setback for the French president?

In Washington, Biden and Macron spoke with a united front on Ukraine - and that is the central point. They were both firm in their Putin stance, and firm in their support for Zelensky. On negotiations the reality is obviously complex: all parties say they are ready for peace, but the positions are too far apart to allow for it. For Ukraine, the goal is the total withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory. For Russia, negotiations will only begin if the international community accepts the territory gained since February 24. These positions are fundamentally incompatible. The conflict will last, with a stalemate this winter, with everyone preparing to be stronger in the spring. There is no room for negotiation insofar as both positions remain incompatible. What the French President is saying (namely that we must continue to talk with Russia) is a position of principle, but also a means of making the French difference heard. The nuclear issue has been put back on the table by the Russians and is one too serious to interrupt the dialogue. We must consider the French position in the broader picture of geopolitical power games being played. Turkey succeeded in imposing itself as an intermediary between the two countries, through which grain deliveries have been able to resume. In this context, France is standing alongside America but is ensuring both Washington and Ankara are made aware of the slight French difference. The fact that the majority in the House of Representatives has shifted from Democrat to Republican, albeit very slightly, could be a problem for American support to Ukraine. There is a risk that Americans will criticize Europeans for not doing their part in supporting Ukraine: for the past 10 months, they have been providing 90 percent of the military aid and could demand a rebalancing! The Republicans may want to press this issue.

Geopolitical upheavals are multiplying, as seen with recent protests in China, repeated provocations by North Korea, and uprisings in Iran. What joint positions can both the US and France take in this regard? On Iran and China, are there notable differences?

But the United States and France evolved. On Iran, in 2015 at the time of the signing of the JCPOA, France was on a much tougher stance towards Tehran, unlike Washington. Former French President François Hollande and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius wanted more firmness and specificity towards Iran, while President Obama wanted to secure an agreement at all costs. Today the situation changed, the United States and France share similar stances, both on firmness and openness.

With regard to China, there are still significant differences between both approaches. The United States’ stance is evidently harsher, while the European one is still struggling to distance itself from a sort of "naivety" and its "mercantile instinct". Gradually, the Europeans are becoming increasingly realistic, moving closer to Washington's firm positions. However, the EU remains very tempted to keep up trade with Beijing. Germany, in particular, finds it difficult to integrate this new logic into its trade policy. Overall, without equating the Iranian and Chinese examples, Europe and the United States have moved closer together on Iran, but there are main divergences with regard to China.

What can be said about President Macron's visit to New Orleans, Louisiana, and the cultural dimension he wanted to give it?

Emmanuel Macron wanted to end this state visit, which was particularly marked by economic and geopolitical issues, by emphasizing the cultural dimension, French soft power, and a push to promote the French language. He was right to do so. But as far as the French language is concerned, we find ourselves today in a defensive position. Throughout Africa, and in the Maghreb region, it is clear that the French position is complex. Can we, through culture, try to make up for the negative developments linked to the past? One thing is certain, of this entire visit, there is little chance that history will remember the passage in Louisiana and the references to the Francophone world.

Let us not forget that the starting point in considering the Franco-American relationship remains the rivalry that both countries put forward during their respective revolutions. Americans pride themselves on having their revolution before the French one. The French, on the other hand, maintain that the American Revolution was entirely nourished by French ideals and philosophy and that it could never have existed without it. When France was the "Great Nation," America was still a young republic and a small power. Gradually, the great nation became a middle power, and as a small nation, America became a superpower. Our two countries are therefore structural competitors when it comes to universalism. And history has made America the empire that has been constituted most rapidly, and that has shown the evolution "in negative" to say the least of France, and more globally of Europe.

To conclude, what key issues should be monitored during the upcoming months? What can we expect concretely following this State visit?

The key issue remains Ukraine, which is certainly felt in France as certain tensions are emerging. They come from an extreme wing in the far-right, which argues that France does not share the United States’ war goals, that we have no vocation to lose ourselves in an American war, or that the time has come to negotiate, and that the blame is shared. One can feel the temptation from a part of the French political class to distance itself from Emmanuel Macron's policy. If the winter is bitter (with the economic crisis, energy and power cuts…) the tension will be even greater. The main thing is therefore to maintain a common and firm vision between Paris and Washington: that of a total commitment to Ukraine. This is the priority issue for the coming months. And in this context, I do not see any future division between France and the United States. Let's say that "thanks" to Putin and Xi Jinping we are not going in the direction of further division, but rather of rapprochement. This does not mean that rivalries will disappear. More than ever, the United States is our strategic ally, which does not prevent it from remaining our systemic economic rival.

Copyright : Ludovic MARIN / AFP.