Will Mr. Macron, if following a similar diplomatic strategy, be more successful? For the time being, the objective is limited to obtaining a de-escalation, which is essential to create the conditions to resume dialogue. It is likely that even to achieve this limited objective, the French President will have to be able to guarantee Iran's ability to export part of its oil, thanks to European measures (activation of the so-called INSTEX mechanism to begin with), but above all to the return of some American "waivers". That is why, just as much as Mr. Macron's dialogue with Mr. Rohani and the visits of his diplomatic adviser to Tehran, it is the conversations between the President of the Republic and his American counterpart that are decisive.
Let us imagine for a moment that efforts to de-escalate the situation are successful. It will then be necessary to consider what the conditions could be for a relaunch of the Iranian-American dialogue. We would suggest that before this happens, an intermediate phase would be useful, if not essential. Between de-escalation (Phase I) and the resumption of dialogue (Phase III), "third parties" (Europe, China, India, regional actors) could propose a regional stabilization mechanism (Phase II) in which Iranians would be granted status, instead of being the outcasts of the region, while being encouraged to behave in a constructive manner. Let us repeat: we are very far from a situation of this type at the moment. It is to be feared that diplomacy, for the time being, will not allow us to bring politics back from the brink.
Copyright : ATTA KENARE / AFP
Add new comment