Moreover, the White House can take steps and pledge defense support for Gulf leaders to deter the Iranian regime but given the continuous attempts to revive the nuclear talks, Biden will be in a “wait and see” approach on Iran, despite the continuous pressure from Arab leaders to be more proactive in deterring Tehran.
US policy must ultimately adapt to two potential emerging realities: a high probability that there is no longer cooperation with Russia in the Middle East in the foreseeable future, and the absence of a nuclear deal with Tehran. The unlikeliness of reaching a nuclear deal might bring Moscow and Tehran closer in their already complicated relationship, and they are already harassing US forces in Syria, Iraq and the Gulf. As such, can the US venture in simultaneously deterring both Russia and Iran while also countering Chinese diplomatic and economic influence in the Middle East? Will the Biden administration continue its defensive posture toward Iran by setting redlines? Or will it implement an active deterrence approach while teaming up with regional partners? Answers to these questions remain to be seen.
For now, the US is maintaining economic pressure on Tehran while subtly giving a green light for Israeli covert actions against the Iranian regime. However, it is refraining from any actions that might provoke Tehran and derail the nuclear negotiations. If these talks do ultimately collapse, the US will most probably increase economic pressure through sanctions and Iran will retaliate through its agents. So far, things have been cordial as the US and Iran are coexisting in Iraq and Lebanon for instance. The Iran-backed Hezbollah is facilitating the US-led mediation on the maritime dispute between Lebanon and Israel. The US pre-approved the transfer of Egyptian gas to Lebanon to ease the economic pressure on the Hezbollah-led Lebanese political system, even though the US has yet to give its waiver and certify that the deal is in compliance with the sanctions regime. Iraq passed last month a $1.6 billion emergency finance bill to pay Iran gas debt despite US sanctions, and despite the continuing political impasse in Baghdad.
The Biden administration needs to be prepared to face the region whether a nuclear deal is revived or not. As of right now, Biden's cautious approach to stay the current course appears to be more cost-effective than the alternative to lead with Israel and Saudi Arabia in deterring the Iranian regime. The latter approach could result in further US entanglement in the region’s conflicts.
The Russo-Ukraine conflict has for now shifted US tactics in the Middle East on the short-term, but the tipping point for the US strategy in the region might be the fate of Iran’s nuclear deal. The longer this war lasts, the more potential it has to affect the US economy and reshape US politics and foreign policy in the Middle East. This conflict has also exposed the limits of US influence in the region, most notably in implementing US sanctions, given the reluctance of regional leaders to follow suit and comply in sanctioning Moscow. Regional leaders do not want to see a clear winner emerging in the Russo-Ukraine conflict whether that means a US victory by sanctions or a Russian one by force. Rather, they might want to keep up with having the luxury to play both sides when needed.
Copyright: MANDEL NGAN / AFP
Add new comment