Multilateralism's path strewn with obstacles
Support for multilateralism i.e. institutionalized international cooperation has long been one of France's foreign policy’s pillars. With Emmanuel Macron, this orientation has taken on new prominence. First, due to the President's personal commitment, for example by launching the Paris Forum for Peace on November 11-13 2019, of which Institut Montaigne is a founding member. Second, the paradoxical increased need for international cooperation to deal with global environment or non-proliferation issues in the backdrop of an American backlash against international institutions of which the United States had often been the initial supporter, from the UN to the IMF, World Bank, WTO, NATO, etc.
Yet, the dynamic in favor of multilateralism will be particularly difficult to preserve throughout the year 2020.
- JCPOA and WTO: the Iranians decided on January 7 to free themselves from most of their obligations under the JCPOA nuclear agreement with the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany and the EU. As the Americans themselves have withdrawn from the agreement, there is little left of the JCPOA. On a completely different note, Washington's decision to no longer appoint representatives to WTO arbitration bodies paralyzes the very organization which would make an effective instrument for stabilizing trade at a time when the "trade wars" launched by the Trump administration make it so necessary;
- G7 and G20: the next G7 is due to be held in June at Camp David under the US presidency. The Trump administration is already preparing this annual meeting of the major industrial democracies... by eliminating most of the preparation channels. Does Donald Trump intend to turn the summit into a great moment of rehabilitation for Vladimir Putin or an anti-Beijing war council? It will require much dexterity on the part of other participants to demine this exercise. The meeting under Saudi chairmanship of the G20 (the 20 richest countries) in Riyadh in November, at about the same time as the American presidential elections, also raises many concerns such as timing, the Saudi administrations’ inexperience, regional tensions and especially Saudi Arabia’s limited capacity to resist the desires of Washington;
- The COP 26 in Glasgow (9-19 November): the Paris Agreement (COP 21 in December 2015) provided that the 2020 meeting would be one of increased commitments by the States. The last COP meeting, held in Madrid a few weeks ago, ended on a pessimistic note: the leap towards a less carbon-intensive economy called for by the Paris Agreement did not happen; greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 1.5% per year over the last decade, putting the planet on a warming path of 3.2°C by the end of the century instead of the 2°C envisaged by the Paris Agreement. Here again, it was the United States’ negative attitude, marked by their withdrawal from the agreement, that was decisive, but also China and India’s hesitations, Europe's poor performance and Brazil's turnaround – all of which could not be offset by Russia's rallying to the Agreement.
In such circumstances, the French authorities must ask themselves how the future can be safeguarded, as Emmanuel Macron brilliantly did at the G7 summit in Biarritz last August, and how the idea of multilateralism be given new impetus. Is it conceivable to find a substitute for the currently failing groupings, or "formats" as diplomats say of the G7, G20 and others?
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