Ultimately, the dynamics of the primary undermined the Republicans. In the end, Donald Trump may be the loser of these midterms, but he is a loser who remains in charge. His ego and his mounting legal challenges are strong incentives and perhaps weighed in favor of him running again for president as he just announced his third presidential bid and launched the 2024 campaign at his Mar-a-Lago estate.
Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis, GOP governor of Florida, won his gubernatorial race, but only performed 2% better than Marco Rubio, who also won reelection as Florida’s senator. These results may show that DeSantis, seen by many as a successor (or challenger) to Trump in the Republican Party, is not in as strong a position as some had previously assumed. Still, for Republicans who seek to move past Trump, DeSantis is a strong candidate who shares Trump’s anti-woke cultural warrior image but who is also politically experienced, predictable, and savvy. This shift from a boisterous outsider who is able to energize the electorate to a more politically capable leader is a pattern observed in European politics as well, notably in Italy with the shift from Matteo Salvini to Georgia Meloni. Nevertheless, DeSantis' poor showing vis-à-vis Rubio could be indicative of his limited personal appeal. His victory is better analyzed as the result of structural factors: shifting demographics in Florida and an increasingly conservative Latino population.
Despite the structural factors, DeSantis' victory also needs to be viewed through the lens of voter suppression and voter intimidation. The latter is particularly potent in Florida, where DeSantis created the Office of Election Crimes and Security, which seeks to prosecute election law violations. Many arrests have amounted to nothing, and charges have been dropped, but the mere threat of being prosecuted for voting may have had a cooling effect on Democratic turnout.
The failure of Trump and the rise of DeSantis
The big question coming out of the midterms will be to see if Ron DeSantis runs for President in 2024. The answer is unclear, primarily for the reason stressed above: Trump retains his sway over primary voters. Trump has an increasingly limited appeal to elites, but still controls the masses.
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