Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, China, and Russia will likely carve up the carcass of Afghanistan, all of them reveling in the parallels with the retreat from Saigon and a similar hammer blow to U.S. credibility. It also serves to solidify Beijing’s view that the U.S. security guarantee granted to Taiwan is, in reality, of little to no value. According to this narrative, the fall of Afghanistan could truly be a decisive turning point for today’s world order.
Those who support withdrawal also have their arguments. The primary goal of the 2001 invasion was to prevent the creation of a sanctuary for international jihadism. It was successful in those terms, and it is doubtful that the Taliban will allow Al-Qaeda to reconstitute itself on Afghan soil, if only because this would jeopardize any prospect of international assistance (it should be recalled that the Emir of Afghanistan has traditionally held power over Al-Qaeda’s leader). Furthermore, failing to respect the February 2020 agreement under which the American withdrawal takes place would have put Washington’s trustworthiness into question. This is not the same as it was in Vietnam-the United States is not leaving Afghanistan exhausted and under duress. No new Guam Doctrine has been announced: the U.S. are not completely withdrawing from the region, although the drawdown of their forces does leave the Pentagon freer to focus on China. There are no major consequences to fear for America’s traditional alliances, which remain strong, based on genuine mutual interests, and generally backed up through treaties. As for Afghanistan’s neighbors, their priority is to avoid the spread of jihadism into their own territories, as well as attempting to establish their own power bases in place of the departing American ones. However, these neighboring countries have often played with fire in their support to the Taliban-one thinks in particular of Russian arms sales-and the backlash could be brutal. Privately, in fact, Russian and Chinese leadership are likely to be somewhat worried about the speed of the American withdrawal and would not welcome the resurgence of a fundamentalist emirate in what they respectively consider to be their own zone of influence.
So which view is correct? The next international crisis involving the United States and its adversaries could lead to both sides being proved right. One thing that is for certain is that any perception of a weakening United States will only embolden its enemies. For example, it is hard to believe that Obama’s last-minute U-turn in 2013 from striking against the Syrian regime over its use of chemical weapons in the civil war did not encourage Russian and Chinese adventurism. Thus next time, it is likely that Washington will react, perhaps brutally, if only to show that America is still relevant and hugely powerful. This next crisis could well involve Iran, China, North Korea, or Russia, or another actor.
France’s interests and the migration issue
Add new comment