Coronavirus and Africa – Towards a Postponement of the Presidential Election in Ivory Coast?

The government has an ambitious plan. However, it will only be able to cope with the disease if it is carried out on time, a condition which remains highly uncertain. 

Is the healthcare system resilient enough to cope with the epidemic?

The Ivorian healthcare system is quite resilient and is one of the most efficient systems in the region. When the Ebola epidemic spread to the continent, Ivory Coast, thanks to its healthcare system, did not detect any contamination in the country. The authorities are now relying on this experience to combat Covid-19. Ivory Coast also has eminent doctors in epidemiology and can rely on a highly efficient healthcare staff. Finally, between 2011 and 2019, major investments were made in the healthcare sector, helping to considerably strengthen the healthcare system.

If the country succeeds in acquiring the necessary equipment to combat this virus, it will be able to cope with the pandemic. Nevertheless, one of the country's greatest challenges is its access to ventilators. Abidjan has about 20 of them, which is not enough. An urgent order for an additional 20 has been placed. Another challenge is the rapid deployment of the new testing centres and the operational ability of the five health facilities in Abidjan and its suburbs that have been chosen to test patients. Targets set for the number of beds are progressive. The aim is to initially reach 500 beds, then 1,500, and eventually 2,500 throughout the country.

What will the economic repercussions of the coronavirus in Ivory Coast be?

Economically, the impact is disastrous. Ivory Coast is expected to lose 3 points in growth according to the Prime Minister.

And this doesn’t include the effects on the informal economy, which accounts for 60% of the Ivorian economy. The repercussions are already being felt, and people are struggling to make ends meet despite government action. Indeed, the measures announced will not be enough to help informal sector workers who live on a day-to-day basis. Nonetheless, the resilience of the Ivorian economy should be an asset in coping with the effects of the crisis, with a view to very rapid recovery as soon as the epidemic ends.

What might be the crisis’ political consequences, particularly on the presidential election scheduled for October this year?

The first impact will be the postponement of the election by a few months, probably to 2021, which the authorities are already considering, even if no official announcement has been made yet. The process of registering applicants for identity cards, a procedure required to vote, is currently at a standstill. It is unlikely to have more than 500,000 registered Ivorians. On May 15 the electoral revision process is supposed to begin, and in August, the provisional list of voters is normally published. This timetable will be difficult to follow in the current context.

Today, the main priority is political consensus. This crisis emerged in a context of tensions between the opposition, which challenges constitutional reform of the electoral code, and the government, which supports this reform. The President announced his intention to legislate by ordinance as the reform did not come to an end, therefore prompting opponents to file a complaint to the African Court of Human Rights, based in Tanzania. The verdict was to be delivered at the end of March, but has been postponed due to the epidemic.

Positive signals towards national unity have nevertheless emerged since the beginning of the crisis. All parties have suspended their political activities and qualified opponents (doctors, economists) have offered their assistance to the government.

But discussions regarding the postponement of the presidential election are not open to the opposition for the time being, and remain concentrated within the government. While it is now a near certainty that the election will not be held in October, one element remains unknown: will the postponement of the elections cause an institutional crisis in the country?

What are your recommendations to the decision-making bodies and the Ivorian people?

To decision-making bodies, I recommend transparency at each stage of the plan’s implementation in order to avoid suspicion on the part of the population. This is not the case at the moment, and it has already led to several incidents in recent days, including three in Abidjan. The authorities in charge of the fight against the virus have admitted a "lack of pedagogy" on their part. As part of the deployment of the 10 or so testing centres, the government has faced fierce hostility from people in the ‘Red Roof’ district, a suburb of the greater Yopougon area, North of Abidjan, who were convinced the government was setting up this site to spread the disease by making them live alongside infected people. The incident lasted 24 hours, spreading to other parts of the city in the following days. Another difficulty in recent days has been that the people of Bangolo, in the West of the country, have stood firmly against the delivery of medicines to a hospital.

These incidents show the psychosis and frigidity of the population, which can be avoided if the government communicates more openly and widely, through several channels: 

• local authorities such as mayors, regional councillors, prefects and sub-prefects who can rely on traditional and religious leaders to reach the population more quickly;
• public broadcasting media, which covers more than 90% of the territory of Ivory Coast;
• private press which, despite political sensitivities, is united in this context and conveying health messages; 
• and lastly, social media channels, a useful channel because of the high mobile network in Ivory Coast, whose very young population is particularly well connected.

As far as the population is concerned, people must show civic-mindedness and discipline in the face of the virus. They must respect the government's instructions – similar to those of many other countries, in Africa and elsewhere – and apply barrier gestures. Above all, trust the government: there must be a sacred union around the government in order to face this challenge and defeat the disease.

Copyright : ISSOUF SANOGO / AFP