In early May, Lula gave an interview to TIME Magazine which was controversial (to say the least). Some members of the Workers’ Party had to clarify why Lula blamed the war on President Zelensky. In the interview, Lula claims that Ukrainians should also be blamed for the war. Some defend this position, but you have to consider who initiated the war. While the interview was embarrassing, it is unlikely that the war in Ukraine will become a hot issue during the presidential campaign. International relations are becoming increasingly important in Brazilian domestic debates but do not hold much weight at the ballot box: no one has Putin in mind when casting their vote.
However, global issues can be used to improve Bolsonaro and Lula’s respective statesmen images, to become more legitimate to Brazilians. Bolsonaro decided to take part in the Ninth Summit of the Americas (June 2022), under the condition that US President Joe Biden and him meet in private. Despite a strong anti-Biden sentiment among his supporters back home, Bolsonaro is hoping to use the photos of the meeting in his favor, to nourish his presidential campaign and build his statesman image, boasting that the US President listens to him. The problem remains, however, that he is going against Lula - a candidate with very high international credentials, who holds a double-digit advantage over Bolsonaro, and who was recently received in France by President Macron, and by Olaf Scholz and Pedro Sánchez. If it was a less prestigious candidate than Lula, it would have been easier for Bolsonaro to compete on international issues.
This covers the extent to which the war in Ukraine could affect the presidential elections in Brazil. If the conflict keeps growing, Bolsonaro and his adversary will have to develop a more complex stance but for now, there are enough domestic problems for voters to worry about. The public believes that the government is to blame for rising inflation and is not preoccupied about inflation’s external causes. My sense is that there is a general pro-Ukraine stance in the Brazilian population but it is unclear how that might affect the vote.
What are the current and potential economic impacts of the war on Brazil, in terms of food security and beyond?
If Brazil faces severe food insecurity, the whole world will be affected. The country is a global food supplier with stark inequalities in terms of economic distribution and food access to its own population. If the fertilizer situation worsens overtime, Brazil will not secure its agricultural production.
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