Austria: A Chancellor for Europe?

From 1 July, Austria will chair the Council of the European Union (EU) for a period of six months, succeeding Bulgaria. As an exceptional European mini-summit on migration happened last Sunday in Brussels with no agreement being reached, the conservative Austrian government will very soon be in a prime position to influence European power balances and the continent's political-media calendar.

The Member State holding the presidency of the Council of the EU is responsible for preparing and chairing all 10 different Council configurations, with the exception of meetings of foreign ministers chaired by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The presidency of the European Council - the meeting of all EU Heads of state and government - is held by a political leader elected for a renewable period of two and a half years.

At the center of the game

The youngest European head of government, Sebastian Kurz (31), who heads a coalition between his party, the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), and the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), has in recent weeks increased exchanges with its European partners. Whether with its allies in the Visegrád group (the V4: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic), or its two powerful neighbors - Italy, governed for several weeks by a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the League, or Bavaria, led by the Minister-President Markus Söder of the Christian Social Union (CSU) - Austria is at the center of discussions. With a simple objective: to bring together all opponents of the current European migration policy and to have the EU adopt stronger measures to limit the arrival of migrants on European territory.

In January 2018 and only in power for a few weeks, Sebastian Kurz declared during a visit to Vienna by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán that he wanted to be a "bridge" between East and West. Between the countries of Visegrád and the great nations of Western Europe. On Wednesday 13 June, the young chancellor himself announced the creation of an "axis" between his government, the Italian Minister of Interior Matteo Salvini and his German counterpart Horst Seehofer of the CSU. This was the first victory on the European stage for Sebastian Kurz, who is believed to have participated in the current destabilization of the alliance between the CDU and the CSU in Germany. But the political and ideological influence of Sebastian Kurz seems to go even further. According to the German daily Die Welt, Bavaria's Minister-President Markus Söder reportedly asked Chancellor Angela Merkel not to come in Bavaria support his CSU ally, to which he belongs, during the election campaign for the regional parliamentary elections in October 2018. Instead, he would prefer the visit of Sebastian Kurz, whose political line on migration seems more likely to limit the rise of the Eurosceptic party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

In addition to the alliance with the Visegrád group - some commentators have speculated that Austria might become the fifth member - the formation of strong alliances with the Italian government, as in the German coalition government, seems to place Austria at the center of the complex European political game.

A presidency coming at the right time

The Austrian government has published a document of almost 70 pages presenting the program and priorities of its presidency. Sebastian Kurz adroitly chose as his motto for his presidency "A Europe that protects", thus following on from Emmanuel Macron's presidential campaign and his great European speeches. For the young chancellor, Europe must do more to protect its citizens in three priority areas: security and migration, prosperity and competitiveness through digitization and stability in the European neighborhood, thus bringing not only the Western Balkans, but also southern and eastern Europe, closer to the EU.
 
Like its populist and conservative allies in the Visegrád Group, the Austrian government in no way advocates leaving the Union. From the very first lines of the Austrian presidency's program, they affirm that the European states "face new challenges, to which no country can respond effectively on its own", thus taking up the main argument of the defenders of the European project since its creation. Unlike the French Eurosceptic parties which more or less aim for European deconstruction, Austria under Chancellor Kurz, like many of the governments in the region, recognizes the need for their country to be a member of the Union. Recently, the Hungarian Prime Minister, in a tribute speech to Helmut Kohl, said: “Hungary has become a member of the European Union. We are grateful to Germany for this.”

Sebastian Kurz is in a strong position to begin his presidency, thanks to his political skill, a moderate and modern image among the public and some of the European ruling classes, but also to a very favorable European political context. 

For what political objectives?

• From a domestic perspective, like Matteo Salvini in Italy, Sebastian Kurz understands that by creating the conditions for a European quarrel on migration issues, he strengthens his popularity and the power of his government. Moreover, this European action in favor of a stronger EU enables him to rise to the level of the great European leaders - Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel - while providing evidence of their relative political isolation.
   
• On a European level, everyone now has in mind the elections for the European Parliament in May 2019 and everyone expects migration issues to become the main theme of the campaign. Under these conditions, Sebastian Kurz, whose ÖVP formation is a member of the European People's Party (EPP), such as the CDU, CSU, Fidesz in Hungary or Les Républicains in France, may insist that the EPP support this issue during the campaign. The EU presidency should enable Austria to keep this topic at the top of the Union's political agenda and to bring Brussels closer to the Central and Eastern European countries most critical of the decisions taken in recent years, in particular Hungary and Poland. 
   
• On the global scene, Austria also seems to want to act as a "bridge" between East and West. The young chancellor welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin at the beginning of June and, at a press conference with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, spoke of a "gradual" lifting of European sanctions. With the new Italian government and Viktor Orbán's Hungary, the Russian President could soon have three key supporters in the EU. Nevertheless, powerful Poland - also at the forefront of the countries calling for a stronger European migration policy - remains very opposed to any Russian influence in Europe and makes it possible to limit the transition from ideological to geopolitical rapprochement between the Visegrád Group, the Central European countries and Moscow. 
  
  In the West, Donald Trump has also shown a desire to support countries that, like him, want borders closed and a firm migration policy. A telephone exchange with Viktor Orbán recently took place on these issues, and the US ambassador to Germany has been quick to declare his support for European rightwing groups. 
  
  As a sign implying that support for Europe's anti-immigration governments is now a shared objective of both the Kremlin and the White House’s European policies, it is in Vienna that the possible summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin could be held. A further sign of the central position now occupied by Austria with Sebastian Kurz and his alliance government between the conservative right and the extreme right, only a few months after his coming to power.