President Tsai Ing-wen has described these operations as "Chinese Communist’s aircraft harassing Taiwan". Unlike Japan’s, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry does not release scramble data to the public, but it comments on specific incidents. Despite the lack of precise statistics, there is no question that the number of Chinese air patrols and the quality of training exercises is on an increasing curve in 2020. A seasonal effect – the weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait limit the possibilities of military operations from October to March – may result in cooling down the tensions after the US presidential election on November 3, but the cooling-off period may be short-lived and the risk of further coercive behavior needs to be taken very seriously.
The information space
Retired Taiwanese Air Force Lieutenant General Chang Yen-ting argues that China pursues simultaneously a tactical goal – collecting data on Taiwan’s air defense – and a longer term strategic goal, engaging the Taiwanese Air Force "in a war of attrition by putting its front-line personnel under enough pressure to force military planners to divert attention and resources from other areas". It should be remembered that in the beginning of the 1990s, the Taiwanese Air Force enjoyed overwhelming superiority and was patrolling deep into the Strait – there was no unofficial boundary in the median line of the Taiwan Strait until the 1995-1996 missile crisis. Building air superiority vis-à-vis Taiwan is a long-term goal of the PLA, that takes investment in equipment but also training exercises. The military balance perspective is important for both sides and is reflected in the actual geographic operational space of the two Air Forces, which has changed over time and continues to change.
But the psychological warfare dimension matters enormously as well. What does China seek to achieve? The spokesperson of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Ma Xiaoguang describes these patrols as a response to the Taiwanese government’s attempts to "use force to reject unification" (以武拒统). The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command communicates on operations aiming at defeating "Taiwan independence separatist activities". The extreme centralization of Taiwan policy-making under the second term of Xi Jinping means that there is a possibility of misreading Chinese intentions. Communication channels with the "Taiwan affairs office system" (国台办系统) are no longer operational, complicating threat assessment for Taiwan and the United States. The hardline official statements, combined with the uncertainties regarding who are the key players of China’s Taiwan policy, what are their views and their discussions, raise questions regarding the goals attached to military action today, and what comes next.
However, military operations speak clearly for themselves. Air force patrols and other exercises are part of China’s "cognitive domain warfare" (认知域作战). By saturating the information space in Taiwan with the idea of a risk of war, they seek maximal psychological gains. Taiwanese defense experts point to the long-term challenge of such operations on Taiwan’s resilience. Director of War College at Taiwan’s National Defense University Shen Ming-shih argues that Chinese air operations aim at "paralyzing Taiwan’s psychology. Having the Taiwanese getting used to regular air operations by the Communist military would be equivalent to inviting the PLA fighters to cross the line and invade". Lee Guan-cheng from the Institute of National Defense and Security Research concludes that China follows a two-pronged strategy. Exercises create an environment of fear, and then the responsibility of causing tension is blamed on "Taiwan’s ambitious politicians". This is supposed to create the impression that Taiwan faces a binary choice between being China-friendly and peaceful, or dangerously anti-China.
Add new comment